Why Stock Markets Crash

Why Stock Markets Crash

In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash.

Author: Didier Sornette

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691175959

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 448

View: 131

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Categories: Business & Economics

Why Stock Markets Crash

Why Stock Markets Crash

This book is different. First, it is written by an internationally recognized expert in non-linear, complex systems. Second, it promotes some new ideas in both finance and science.

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: 0691195684

Category:

Page: 448

View: 199

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Categories:

The history of stock market crashes

The history of stock market crashes

Starting with the first big crash, the tulip mania, in the years of 1636 and 1637. Following, further big crashes up to recent days are presented and the reasons and outcomes of these are explained.

Author: Peter Rössel

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

ISBN: 9783668728004

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 10

View: 833

Academic Paper from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, Post University (Malcolm Baldrige School of Business), language: English, abstract: This paper was written in the course "Investment Management". It outlines the history of stock market crashes that occurred throughout time. Starting with the first big crash, the tulip mania, in the years of 1636 and 1637. Following, further big crashes up to recent days are presented and the reasons and outcomes of these are explained. A stock market crash can be defined as an extreme price collapse on the stock market. Usually this process takes a few days to a few weeks. During this period mostly panic sales, which generate a large excess supply and thus lead to drastically falling prices dominate the scene.
Categories: Business & Economics

The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash

The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash

Refutes the myth that the stock market was overpriced in 1929 and offers an explanation for the crash with implications for the current era of unparalleled stock market gains.

Author: Harold Bierman

Publisher: Praeger

ISBN: STANFORD:36105023161560

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 162

View: 160

Refutes the myth that the stock market was overpriced in 1929 and offers an explanation for the crash with implications for the current era of unparalleled stock market gains.
Categories: Business & Economics

Stock Market Crashes Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Stock Market Crashes  Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets.

Author: Ziemba William T

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9789813223868

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 308

View: 320

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years. We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations. The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models. Contents: IntroductionDiscovery of the Bond–Stock Earnings Yield Differential ModelPrediction of the 2007–2009 Stock Market Crashes in the US, China and IcelandThe High Price–Earnings Stock Market Danger Approach of Campbell and Shiller versus the BSEYD ModelOther Prediction Models for the Big Crashes Averaging –25%Effect of Fed Meetings and Small-Cap DominanceUsing Zweig's Monetary and Momentum Models in the Modern EraAnalysis and Possible Prediction of Declines in the –5% to –15% RangeA Stopping Rule Model for Exiting Bubble-like Markets with ApplicationsA Simple Procedure to Incorporate Predictive Models in Stochastic Investment Models
Categories: Business & Economics

The Crash Signal

The Crash Signal

This One Signal Has Predicted a Stock Market Crash For the Last 60 Years! ━━━━━━━▲━━━━━━━ In this ground breaking book, Tim Morris shows you the one signal which has flashed before every stock market crash for ...

Author: Tim Morris

Publisher: ZML Corp LLC

ISBN: 9781393865117

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 66

View: 287

This One Signal Has Predicted a Stock Market Crash For the Last 60 Years! ━━━━━━━▲━━━━━━━ In this ground breaking book, Tim Morris shows you the one signal which has flashed before every stock market crash for the last 60 years! He goes into the details of why this happens, and provides you the tools so you can know exactly when it will happen again. Tim not only teaches you how to determine when a crash will occur, but gives you a step-by-step outline of how to actually make money when the crash is happening... but we're not finished! Tim then teaches you two little known signals which let you know that the crash is over and it's safe to start investing again in the markets. If you have any money in stocks, which includes a 401K, you can't risk not knowing this information! Save your money and sanity from the next stock market crash or even profit from it. The choice is yours! ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ As a complimentary bonus, only for book buyers, you'll receive Tim's special report titled Crush the Market. This special report is packed with 14 incredibly beneficial tips to help you make money in the stock market! This report is not available to the general public, or anywhere else. It exists solely as a "thank you" to buyers of this book. ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ If you want to protect what you own and not have to worry about the next stock market crash, click the "Buy Now" button at the top of this page and pick up your copy of The Crash Signal NOW!
Categories: Business & Economics

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

Discusses the stock market crash of 1929 and the following Great Depression, examining the causes of the crash, the impact on U.S. history, and people who influenced these events.

Author: Sabrina Crewe

Publisher: Gareth Stevens Publishing LLLP

ISBN: 083683416X

Category: Juvenile Nonfiction

Page: 32

View: 291

Discusses the stock market crash of 1929 and the following Great Depression, examining the causes of the crash, the impact on U.S. history, and people who influenced these events.
Categories: Juvenile Nonfiction

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

This book looks at the events that helped usher one of the grimmest periods in American history.

Author: Brenda Lange

Publisher: Infobase Publishing

ISBN: 9781438104287

Category: Business

Page: 121

View: 841

On October 29, 1929, more than 16 million stock shares were sold at the New York Stock Exchange, and by the end of November investors had lost more than $100 billion in assets. This book looks at the events that helped usher one of the grimmest periods in American history.
Categories: Business

Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias

Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias

Raises basic questions about the stability of capital markets and the potential for regulation. No index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Author: Eugene Nelson White

Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub

ISBN: STANFORD:36105018396221

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 564

View: 382

A collection of articles published between the 1920s and the 1990s on speculative manias and stock market crashes, highlighting their similarities. Looks at the mania for tulips in Holland in the 17th century, schemes to refinance government debt in 18th-century France and Britain, the volatile American stock and real estate markets of the 19th century, and parallels between the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987. Raises basic questions about the stability of capital markets and the potential for regulation. No index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Categories: Business & Economics