The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101595957

Category: Political Science

Page: 544

View: 9963


"One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

In Defense of Disciplines

Interdisciplinarity and Specialization in the Research University

Author: Jerry A. Jacobs

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 022606946X

Category: Social Science

Page: 328

View: 6647


Calls for closer connections among disciplines can be heard throughout the world of scholarly research, from major universities to the National Institutes of Health. In Defense of Disciplines presents a fresh and daring analysis of the argument surrounding interdisciplinarity. Challenging the belief that blurring the boundaries between traditional academic fields promotes more integrated research and effective teaching, Jerry Jacobs contends that the promise of interdisciplinarity is illusory and that critiques of established disciplines are often overstated and misplaced. Drawing on diverse sources of data, Jacobs offers a new theory of liberal arts disciplines such as biology, economics, and history that identifies the organizational sources of their dynamism and breadth. Illustrating his thesis with a wide range of case studies including the diffusion of ideas between fields, the creation of interdisciplinary scholarly journals, and the rise of new fields that spin off from existing ones, Jacobs turns many of the criticisms of disciplines on their heads to mount a powerful defense of the enduring value of liberal arts disciplines. This will become one of the anchors of the case against interdisciplinarity for years to come.

Left Brain, Right Stuff

How Leaders Make Winning Decisions

Author: Phil Rosenzweig

Publisher: Profile Books

ISBN: 184765973X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 435

View: 7318


Dozens of books have been published recently on the errors and biases that affect our judgments and choices. Drawing on cognitive science, their lessons are excellent for many kinds of decisions - consumer choice and financial investments, for example - but stop short of addressing many of the most important decisions we face in management, where we can actively influence outcomes and where competitive forces mean we have to outperform rivals. As Phil Rosenzweig shows, drawing on examples from business, sports and politics, this sort of decision-making relies on mastering two very different abilities. First, the analytical problem-solving skills associated with the brain's left hemisphere; and second, what Tom Wolfe called 'the Right Stuff': the ability to take calculated risks. Bringing fresh and often surprising insights to topics including confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, leadership and authenticity, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, Left Brain, Right Stuff, the myth-busting follow-up to The Halo Effect, explains how to perform when making even the most difficult decisions.

Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A


Category: Aeronautics

Page: N.A

View: 1241


Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.

Computer and Information Science

Author: Roger Lee

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3540791868

Category: Computers

Page: 284

View: 9484


The 7th IEEE/ACIS Conference and the 2nd IEEE/ACIS Workshop on e-Activity (IWEA 2008) featured researchers from around the world. The conference organizers selected 23 outstanding papers for this volume of Springer’s Studies in Computational Intelligence.

The Asian Monsoon

Author: Bin Wang

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9783540406105

Category: Nature

Page: 787

View: 3127


This is a timely, interdisciplinary scientific overview of the atmosphere, the ocean and the land surface as it interacts with physical, chemical and biological processes. The high level of detail sets it apart from other studies of monsoon meteorology. The text includes analysis of paleoclimate records, human influences on the monsoon climate and the economic impacts of the monsoon on economies and to human health.

Signal Processing for Intelligent Sensor Systems with MATLAB®, Second Edition

Author: David C. Swanson

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1439879508

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 683

View: 6530


Signal Processing for Intelligent Sensors with MATLAB®, Second Edition once again presents the key topics and salient information required for sensor design and application. Organized to make it accessible to engineers in school as well as those practicing in the field, this reference explores a broad array of subjects and is divided into sections: Fundamentals of Digital Signal Processing, Frequency Domain Processing, Adaptive System Identification and Filtering, Wavenumber Sensor Systems, and Signal Processing Applications. Taking an informal, application-based approach and using a tone that is more engineer-to-engineer than professor-to-student, this revamped second edition enhances many of the features that made the original so popular. This includes retention of key algorithms and development methodologies and applications, which are creatively grouped in a way that differs from most comparable texts, to optimize their use. New for the Second Edition: Inclusion of more solved problems Web access to a large collection of MATLAB® scripts used to support data graphs presented throughout the book Additional coverage of more audio engineering, transducers, and sensor networking technology A new chapter on Digital Audio processing reflects a growing interest in digital surround sound (5.1 audio) techniques for entertainment, home theaters, and virtual reality systems New sections on sensor networking, use of meta-data architectures using XML, and agent-based automated data mining and control Serving dual roles as both a learning resource and a field reference on sensor system networks, this book progressively reveals digestible nuggets of critical information to help readers quickly master presented algorithms and adapt them to meet their requirements. It illustrates the current trend toward agile development of web services for wide area sensor networking and intelligent processing in the sensor system networks that are employed in homeland security, business, and environmental and demographic information systems.

Synchronous Ethernet and IEEE 1588 in Telecoms

Next Generation Synchronization Networks

Author: Jean-Loup Ferrant,Mike Gilson,Sébastien Jobert,Michael Mayer,Laurent Montini,Michel Ouellette,Silvana Rodrigues,Stefano Ruffini

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118580052

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 416

View: 747


This book addresses the multiple technical aspects of thedistribution of synchronization in new generation telecommunicationnetworks, focusing in particular on synchronous Ethernet andIEEE1588 technologies. Many packet network engineers struggle withunderstanding the challenges that precise synchronizationdistribution can impose on networks. The usual “why”,“when” and particularly “how” can causeproblems for many engineers. In parallel to this, some othermarkets have identical synchronization requirements, but with theirown design requirements, generating further questions. This bookattempts to respond to the different questions by providingbackground technical information. Invaluable information on stateof-the-art packet network synchronization and timing architecturesis provided, as well as an unbiased view on the synchronizationtechnologies that have been internationally standardized overrecent years, with the aim of providing the average reader (who isnot skilled in the art) with a better understanding of this topic.The book focuses specifically on synchronous Ethernet and IEEE 1588PTP-based technologies, both key developments in the world ofsynchronization over the last 10 years. The authors address theneeds of engineers and technical managers who are struggling withthe subject of synchronization and provide an engineering referencefor those that need to consider synchronization in NGN. The marketapplications that are driving the development of packet networksynchronization and timing architectures are also discussed. Thisbook provides a wide audience with everything they need to knowwhen researching, implementing, buying and deploying packetsynchronization architectures in telecommunication networks. Contents 1. Network Evolutions, Applications and Their SynchronizationRequirements. 2. Synchronization Technologies. 3. Synchronization Network Architectures in Packet Networks. 4. Synchronization Design and Deployments. 5. Management and Monitoring of Synchronization Networks. 6. Security Aspects Impacting Synchronization. 7. Test and Measurement Aspects of Packet SynchronizationNetworks. Appendix 1.Standards in Telecom Packet Networks Using SynchronousEthernet and/or IEEE 1588. Appendix 2. Jitter Estimation by Statistical Study (JESS) MetricDefinition. About the Authors Jean-Loup Ferrant worked for Alcatel and Alcatel-Lucent until heretired in 2009, then he continued being Rapporteur of ITU-TSG15Q13 sponsored by Calnex Solutions. Mike Gilson is a Technical Specialist for BT on timing andsynchronization based at Adastral Park, Martlesham Heath, UK. Herepresents BT on several standards bodies. Sébastien Jobert is an R&D expert on synchronization, QoSand performance of telecom networks at France TélécomOrange Labs, Lannion, France. Michael Mayer is an active contributor to ITU-T standards and aconsultant in timing and synchronization. Laurent Montini is a Technical Leader, based in France, and workingin the Corporate Consulting Team within the Research and AdvancedDevelopment organization at Cisco. Michel Ouellette is V.P. of Engineering at Iometrix in SanFrancisco, California, USA, specializing in conformance testing ofpacket network technologies such as Carrier Ethernet 2.0, MPLS,IEEE1588, SyncE. Silvana Rodrigues is Director of System Engineering at IDT inOttawa, Canada. She represents IDT on several synchronizationstandards committees. Stefano Ruffini is the synchronization expert representing Ericssonon various standardization bodies. He works in Pisa, Italy in theResearch & Innovation Team within the IP & BroadbandDevelopment Unit at Ericsson.

Nonlinear Smoothing and Multiresolution Analysis

Author: Carl Rohwer

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9783764372293

Category: Mathematics

Page: 137

View: 8005


This monograph presents a new theory for analysis, comparison and design of nonlinear smoothers, linking to established practices. Although a part of mathematical morphology, the special properties yield many simple, powerful and illuminating results leading to a novel nonlinear multiresolution analysis with pulses that may be as natural to vision as wavelet analysis is to acoustics. Similar to median transforms, they have the advantages of a supporting theory, computational simplicity, remarkable consistency, full trend preservation, and a Parceval-type identity. Although the perspective is new and unfamiliar to most, the reader can verify all the ideas and results with simple simulations on a computer at each stage. The framework developed turns out to be a part of mathematical morphology, but the additional specific structures and properties yield a heuristic understanding that is easy to absorb for practitioners in the fields like signal- and image processing. The book targets mathematicians, scientists and engineers with interest in concepts like trend, pulse, smoothness and resolution in sequences.

Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Frontiers of Intelligent Computing: Theory and Applications (FICTA) 2014

Author: Suresh Chandra Satapathy,Bhabendra Narayan Biswal,Siba K. Udgata,J.K. Mandal

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319119338

Category: Computers

Page: 852

View: 9581


This volume contains 95 papers presented at FICTA 2014: Third International Conference on Frontiers in Intelligent Computing: Theory and Applications. The conference was held during 14-15, November, 2014 at Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India. This volume contains papers mainly focused on Data Warehousing and Mining, Machine Learning, Mobile and Ubiquitous Computing, AI, E-commerce & Distributed Computing and Soft Computing, Evolutionary Computing, Bio-inspired Computing and its Applications.