The Art of Causal Conjecture

Author: Glenn Shafer

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 9780262193689

Category: Computers

Page: 511

View: 5327

DOWNLOAD NOW »

In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Release

The Dynamics of Judicial Proof

Computation, Logic, and Common Sense

Author: Marilyn MacCrimmon,Peter Tillers

Publisher: Physica

ISBN: 3790817929

Category: Law

Page: 494

View: 2564

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Fact finding in judicial proceedings is a dynamic process. This collection of papers considers whether computational methods or other formal logical methods developed in disciplines such as artificial intelligence, decision theory, and probability theory can facilitate the study and management of dynamic evidentiary and inferential processes in litigation. The papers gathered here have several epicenters, including (i) the dynamics of judicial proof, (ii) the relationship between artificial intelligence or formal analysis and "common sense," (iii) the logic of factual inference, including (a) the relationship between causality and inference and (b) the relationship between language and factual inference, (iv) the logic of discovery, including the role of abduction and serendipity in the process of investigation and proof of factual matters, and (v) the relationship between decision and inference.
Release

Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management

Author: Alex Gammerman

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3642586481

Category: Computers

Page: 185

View: 4101

DOWNLOAD NOW »

The need to electronically store, manipulate and analyze large-scale, high-dimensional data sets requires new computational methods. This book presents new intelligent data management methods and tools, including new results from the field of inference. Leading experts also map out future directions of intelligent data analysis. This book will be a valuable reference for researchers exploring the interdisciplinary area between statistics and computer science as well as for professionals applying advanced data analysis methods in industry.
Release

Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations

Author: Jon Williamson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 019853079X

Category: Computers

Page: 239

View: 1123

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Bayesian nets are used in artificial intelligence as a calculus for causal reasoning, enabling machines to make predictions, perform diagnoses, take decisions and even to discover causal relationships. This book brings together how to automate reasoning in artificial intelligence, and the nature of causality and probability in philosophy.
Release

Probability Theory

Philosophy, Recent History and Relations to Science

Author: Vincent F. Hendricks,Stig Andur Pedersen,Klaus Frovin Jørgensen

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792369523

Category: Mathematics

Page: 183

View: 3244

DOWNLOAD NOW »

A collection of papers presented at the conference on Probability Theory - Philosophy, Recent History and Relations to Science, University of Roskilde, Denmark, September 16-18, 1998. Since the measure theoretical definition of probability was proposed by Kolmogorov, probability theory has developed into a mature mathematical theory. It is today a fruitful field of mathematics that has important applications in philosophy, science, engineering, and many other areas. The measure theoretical definition of probability and its axioms, however, are not without their problems; some of them even puzzled Kolmogorov. This book sheds light on some recent discussions of the problems in probability theory and their history, analysing their philosophical and mathematical significance, and the role pf mathematical probability theory in other sciences.
Release

Probability and Finance

It's Only a Game!

Author: Glenn Shafer,Vladimir Vovk

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0471461717

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 440

View: 8629

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Provides a foundation for probability based on game theory ratherthan measure theory. A strong philosophical approach with practicalapplications. Presents in-depth coverage of classical probability theory aswell as new theory.
Release

Bias and Causation

Models and Judgment for Valid Comparisons

Author: Dr. Herbert I. Weisberg

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781118058206

Category: Mathematics

Page: 348

View: 9187

DOWNLOAD NOW »

A one-of-a-kind resource on identifying and dealing with bias in statistical research on causal effects Do cell phones cause cancer? Can a new curriculum increase student achievement? Determining what the real causes of such problems are, and how powerful their effects may be, are central issues in research across various fields of study. Some researchers are highly skeptical of drawing causal conclusions except in tightly controlled randomized experiments, while others discount the threats posed by different sources of bias, even in less rigorous observational studies. Bias and Causation presents a complete treatment of the subject, organizing and clarifying the diverse types of biases into a conceptual framework. The book treats various sources of bias in comparative studies—both randomized and observational—and offers guidance on how they should be addressed by researchers. Utilizing a relatively simple mathematical approach, the author develops a theory of bias that outlines the essential nature of the problem and identifies the various sources of bias that are encountered in modern research. The book begins with an introduction to the study of causal inference and the related concepts and terminology. Next, an overview is provided of the methodological issues at the core of the difficulties posed by bias. Subsequent chapters explain the concepts of selection bias, confounding, intermediate causal factors, and information bias along with the distortion of a causal effect that can result when the exposure and/or the outcome is measured with error. The book concludes with a new classification of twenty general sources of bias and practical advice on how mathematical modeling and expert judgment can be combined to achieve the most credible causal conclusions. Throughout the book, examples from the fields of medicine, public policy, and education are incorporated into the presentation of various topics. In addition, six detailed case studies illustrate concrete examples of the significance of biases in everyday research. Requiring only a basic understanding of statistics and probability theory, Bias and Causation is an excellent supplement for courses on research methods and applied statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate level. It is also a valuable reference for practicing researchers and methodologists in various fields of study who work with statistical data. This book was selected as the 2011 Ziegel Prize Winner in Technometrics for the best book reviewed by the journal. It is also the winner of the 2010 PROSE Award for Mathematics from The American Publishers Awards for Professional and Scholarly Excellence
Release

Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance

Author: Glenn Shafer,Vladimir Vovk

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118548027

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 480

View: 6111

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity premium, and portfolio theory. Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance is a book of research. It is also a teaching resource. Each chapter is supplemented with carefully designed exercises and notes relating the new theory to its historical context. Praise from early readers “Ever since Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe, the standard mathematical treatment of probability theory has been measure-theoretic. In this ground-breaking work, Shafer and Vovk give a game-theoretic foundation instead. While being just as rigorous, the game-theoretic approach allows for vast and useful generalizations of classical measure-theoretic results, while also giving rise to new, radical ideas for prediction, statistics and mathematical finance without stochastic assumptions. The authors set out their theory in great detail, resulting in what is definitely one of the most important books on the foundations of probability to have appeared in the last few decades.” – Peter Grünwald, CWI and University of Leiden “Shafer and Vovk have thoroughly re-written their 2001 book on the game-theoretic foundations for probability and for finance. They have included an account of the tremendous growth that has occurred since, in the game-theoretic and pathwise approaches to stochastic analysis and in their applications to continuous-time finance. This new book will undoubtedly spur a better understanding of the foundations of these very important fields, and we should all be grateful to its authors.” – Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University
Release

Reasoning with Uncertainty in Robotics

International Workshop, RUR '95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, December 4-6, 1995. Proceedings

Author: Leo Dorst,Michiel van Lambalgen,Frans Voorbraak

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: N.A

Category: Computers

Page: 395

View: 8904

DOWNLOAD NOW »

This book presents the refereed proceedings of the International Workshop on Reasoning with Uncertainty in Robotics, RUR'95, held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in December 1995. The book contains 13 revised full papers carefully selected for presentation during the workshop together with six invited papers. Also included are two comprehensive tutorial texts and an introduction by the volume editors. Thus the book is both a competent state-of-the-art report on current research and development and a valuable survey and introduction for researchers entering the area or professionals interested in the application of up-to-date techniques.
Release