Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author: Norman Fenton,Martin Neil

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1439809100

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 524

View: 9755

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Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.
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Sustainable Design and Construction for Geomaterials and Geostructures

Proceedings of the 5th GeoChina International Conference 2018 – Civil Infrastructures Confronting Severe Weathers and Climate Changes: From Failure to Sustainability, held on July 23 to 25, 2018 in HangZhou, China

Author: Behzad Fatahi,Aron Mwanza,Dave T.T. Chang

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319957538

Category: Science

Page: 296

View: 4549

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This book presents recent research findings and critically reviews the existing literature related to assessment of geotechnical structures under complex and extreme loading conditions such as cyclic, seismic and blast loads. Special emphasize is given to experimental assessment of behaviors of soils and rocks in tunneling , while advanced numerical modelling techniques are utilized for modelling and accurate predictions in emerging construction projects such as tunneling and embankments. The book is in line with current trends in civil engineering which are moving towards sustainable design and construction addressing the energy and material challenges. Papers were selected from the 5th GeoChina International Conference 2018 – Civil Infrastructures Confronting Severe Weathers and Climate Changes: From Failure to Sustainability, held on July 23 to 25, 2018 in HangZhou, China.
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Industrial Security

Managing Security in the 21st Century

Author: David L. Russell,Pieter C. Arlow

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118194632

Category: Political Science

Page: 224

View: 2725

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A comprehensive and practical guide to security organization and planning in industrial plants Features Basic definitions related to plant security Features Countermeasures and response methods Features Facilities and equipment, and security organization Topics covered are applicable to multiple types of industrial plants Illustrates practical techniques for assessing and evaluating financial and corporate risks
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Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making

Author: Igor Linkov,Abou Bakr Ramadan

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1402022433

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 436

View: 1328

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Decision making in environmental projects is typically a complex and confusing process characterized by trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts. Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) is a methodology applied to facilitate decision making when various activities compete for limited resources. CRA has become an increasingly accepted research tool and has helped to characterize environmental profiles and priorities on the regional and national level. CRA may be considered as part of the more general but as yet quite academic field of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Considerable research in the area of MCDA has made available methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to multi-criteria problems, but its applications, especially in environmental areas, are still limited. The papers show that the use of comparative risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental challenges.
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Project Management for Engineering and Construction, Third Edition

Author: () (Gary) D. D. D. Oberlender

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 0071822933

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 448

View: 862

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The Latest, Most Effective Engineering and Construction project Management Strategies Fully revised throughout, this up-to-date guide presents the principles and techniques of managing engineering and construction projects from the initial conceptual phase, through design and construction, to completion. The book emphasizes project management during the beginning stages of project development to influence the quality, cost, and schedule of a project as early in the process as possible. Featuring an all-new chapter on risk management, the third edition also includes new sections on: Ensuring project quality The owner's team Parametric estimating Importance of the estimator Formats for work breakdown structures Design work packages Benefits of planning Calculations to verify schedules and cost distributions Common problems in managing design Build-operate-transfer delivery methods Based on the author's decades of experience in working with hundreds of project managers, this essential resource includes many new real-world examples and updated sample problems. Project Management for Engineering and Construction, Third Edition, covers: Working with project teams Project initiation Early estimates Project budgeting Development of work plan Design proposals Project scheduling Tracking work Design coordination Construction phase Project close out Personal management skills Risk management
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Reliability, Risk, and Safety, Three Volume Set

Theory and Applications

Author: Radim Bris,Carlos Guedes Soares

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 0203859758

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 2480

View: 8148

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Containing papers presented at the 18th European Safety and Reliability Conference (Esrel 2009) in Prague, Czech Republic, September 2009, Reliability, Risk and Safety Theory and Applications will be of interest for academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors, including Aeronautics and Aerospace, Aut
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Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management

Principles and Practices

Author: Paolo Ricci

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1402037767

Category: Medical

Page: 480

View: 1095

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This book is about the legal, economical, and practical assessment and management of risky activities arising from routine, catastrophic environmental and occupational exposures to hazardous agents. It includes a discussion of aspects of US and European Union law concerning risky activities, and then develops the economic analyses that are relevant to implementing choices within a supply and demand framework. The book also discusses exposure-response and time-series models used in assessing air and water pollution, as well as probabilistic cancer models, including toxicological compartmental, pharmaco-kinetic models and epidemiological relative risks and odds ratios-based models. Statistical methods to measure agreement, correlation and discordance are also developed. The methods and criteria of decision-analysis, including several measures of value of information (VOI) conclude the expositions. This book is an excellent text for students studying risk assessment and management.
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Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

Author: Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118938895

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 328

View: 6999

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Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.
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CO2 Storage in Carboniferous Formations and Abandoned Coal Mines

Author: Manchao He,Luis Ribeiro e Sousa,Derek Elsworth,Euripedes Vargas Jr.

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466512725

Category: Science

Page: 216

View: 5138

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Underground geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has considerable potential for mitigating climate change. CO2 can be safely injected and stored at well characterized and properly managed sites. Injecting carbon dioxide in deep geological formations can store it underground for long periods of time. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs, saline aquifers and carboniferous formations can be used for storage of CO2, as well as in abandoned coal mines. At depths below about 800-1000m, CO2 has a liquid-like density that permits the efficient use of underground reservoirs in porous sedimentary rocks. The papers in the present volume are from leading experts in the field of CO2 storage and were presented at an International Workshop on CO2 Storage in Carboniferous Formations and Abandoned Coal Mines (Beijing, China, 8-9 January 2011). CO2 storage in abandoned coal mines appears to have a bright future. Although CO2 Storage in Carboniferous Formations and Abandoned Coal Mines is primarily intended for mining engineers, environmental engineers and engineering geologists, the book will also be useful to civil engineers, and academics and professionals in geophysics and geochemistry.
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