Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning: Patterns of plausible inference

Author: George Pólya

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691025100

Category: Mathematics

Page: 240

View: 769


A guide to the practical art of plausible reasoning, this book has relevance in every field of intellectual activity. Professor Polya, a world-famous mathematician from Stanford University, uses mathematics to show how hunches and guesses play an important part in even the most rigorously deductive science. He explains how solutions to problems can be guessed at; good guessing is often more important than rigorous deduction in finding correct solutions. Vol. II, on Patterns of Plausible Inference, attempts to develop a logic of plausibility. What makes some evidence stronger and some weaker? How does one seek evidence that will make a suspected truth more probable? These questions involve philosophy and psychology as well as mathematics.

Models of Simon

Author: Kumaraswamy Vela Velupillai

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134385455

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 200

View: 1890


Herbert Simon (1916-2001) is mostly celebrated for the theory of bounded rationality and satisficing. This book of essays on Models of Simon tackles these topics that the he broached in a professional career spanning more than 60 years. Expository material on the fundamental concepts he introduced are re-interpreted in terms of the theory of computability. This volume frames the behavioural issues of concern for economists, such as: hierarchy, causality, near-diagonal linear dynamical systems, discovery, the contrasts between the notion of heuristics, and the Church-Turing Thesis of Computability Theory. There is, consistently, an emphasis on the historical origins of the concepts Simon worked with, in emphasising Human Problem Solving and Decision Making – by rational individuals and institutions (like Organizations). The main feature of the results in the book are its emphasis on the procedural aspects of human problem solving, decision making and the remarkable way Simon harnessed many tools of mathematical logic, mathematics, cognitive sciences, economics and econometrics. This long-awaited volume is an important read for those who study economic theory and philosophy, microeconomics and political economy, as well as those interested in the great Herbert Simon’s work.

Mathematical Modeling and Optimization

An Essay for the Design of Computer-Based Modeling Tools

Author: Tony Hürlimann

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 147575793X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 313

View: 7188


Computer-based mathematical modeling - the technique of representing and managing models in machine-readable form - is still in its infancy despite the many powerful mathematical software packages already available which can solve astonishingly complex and large models. On the one hand, using mathematical and logical notation, we can formulate models which cannot be solved by any computer in reasonable time - or which cannot even be solved by any method. On the other hand, we can solve certain classes of much larger models than we can practically handle and manipulate without heavy programming. This is especially true in operations research where it is common to solve models with many thousands of variables. Even today, there are no general modeling tools that accompany the whole modeling process from start to finish, that is to say, from model creation to report writing. This book proposes a framework for computer-based modeling. More precisely, it puts forward a modeling language as a kernel representation for mathematical models. It presents a general specification for modeling tools. The book does not expose any solution methods or algorithms which may be useful in solving models, neither is it a treatise on how to build them. No help is intended here for the modeler by giving practical modeling exercises, although several models will be presented in order to illustrate the framework. Nevertheless, a short introduction to the modeling process is given in order to expound the necessary background for the proposed modeling framework.

Abductive Reasoning and Learning

Volume 4: Abductive Reasoning and Learning

Author: Rudolf Kruse

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792365655

Category: Computers

Page: 442

View: 7933


This book contains leading survey papers on the various aspects of Abduction, both logical and numerical approaches. Abduction is central to all areas of applied reasoning, including artificial intelligence, philosophy of science, machine learning, data mining and decision theory, as well as logic itself.