Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Even if the world were static, complex activities that involve people, like intelligence analysis, will never be ... Change is necessary today, because traditional analytical methods and institutional arrangements are increasingly ...

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 9780309163422

Category: Social Science

Page: 116

View: 428

The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Categories: Social Science

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis

Rob Johnson, Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community (Washington, D.C.: Center for the Study of ... National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 2011, p.

Author: Robert M. Clark

Publisher: SAGE

ISBN: 9781452206127

Category: Political Science

Page: 433

View: 579

Robert M. Clark explains that a collaborative, target-centric approach allows for more effective analysis, while better meeting customer needs.
Categories: Political Science

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis

The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences.

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 9780309176989

Category: Social Science

Page: 352

View: 421

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Categories: Social Science

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis

To this end, the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security has produced a consensus report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social ...

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 9780309210928

Category: Social Science

Page: 352

View: 760

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Categories: Social Science

Intelligence Analysis in the Digital Age

Intelligence Analysis in the Digital Age

103; Robert M. Clark: Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2013, pp. 348–350; Mark Phythian: “Intelligence Analysis Today and Tomorrow”, Security Challenges, Vol. 5, No. 1, Autumn 2009, p.

Author: Stig Stenslie

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781000426618

Category: Political Science

Page: 224

View: 306

This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has entered a new era. While intelligence is an ancient activity, the digital age is a relatively new phenomenon. This volume uses the concept of the "digital age" to highlight the increased change, complexity, and pace of information that is now circulated, as new technology has reduced the time it takes to spread news to almost nothing. These factors mean that decision-makers face an increasingly challenging threat environment, which in turn increases the demand for timely, relevant, and reliable intelligence to support policymaking. In this context, the book demonstrates that intelligence places greater demands on analysis work, as the traditional intelligence cycle is no longer adequate as a process description. In the digital age, it is not enough to accumulate as much information as possible to gain a better understanding of the world. To meet customers’ needs, the intelligence process must be centred around the analysis work – which in turn has increased the demand for analysts. Assessments, not least predictions, are now just as important as revealing someone else’s secrets. This volume will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, security studies, and international relations.
Categories: Political Science

Intelligence Analysis How to Think in Complex Environments

Intelligence Analysis  How to Think in Complex Environments

Wargaming must drive intelligence analysis and collection. Today, wargaming for the initiative rarely drives ISR, mostly because ISR is primarily used for determining course of action feasibility, if involved in wargaming in the first ...

Author: Wayne Michael Hall

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 9780313382666

Category: Political Science

Page: 440

View: 254

This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. • Includes quotations from a wide range of acclaimed thinkers • Offers an extensive bibliography of works cited and resources for further reading • Presents a comprehensive index
Categories: Political Science

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

In simple terms, the national and community leadership devalues intelligence analysis today, and the analytic community is aware of this. Policies and proclamations abound that endorse the importance of intelligence analysis, ...

Author: Gregory F. Treverton

Publisher: Rand Corporation

ISBN: 9780833046017

Category: Political Science

Page: 74

View: 119

This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.
Categories: Political Science

Strategic Warning Intelligence

Strategic Warning Intelligence

... Baruch Fischoff and Cherie Chauvin, eds., Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 2011), and its companion volume, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances ...

Author: John A. Gentry

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 9781626166554

Category: Political Science

Page: 289

View: 165

John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students.
Categories: Political Science

National Intelligence and Science

National Intelligence and Science

12 Stephen Marrin, Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice (London: ... Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences (National Academies Press, 2011).

Author: Wilhelm Agrell

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780199360888

Category: Political Science

Page: 272

View: 914

Intelligence is currently facing increasingly challenging cross-pressures from both a need for accurate and timely assessments of potential or imminent security threats and the unpredictability of many of these emerging threats. We are living in a social environment of growing security and intelligence challenges, yet the traditional, narrow intelligence process is becoming increasingly insufficient for coping with diffuse, complex, and rapidly-transforming threats. The essence of intelligence is no longer the collection, analysis, and dissemination of secret information, but has become instead the management of uncertainty in areas critical for overriding security goals--not only for nations, but also for the international community as a whole. For its part, scientific research on major societal risks like climate change is facing a similar cross-pressure from demand on the one hand and incomplete data and developing theoretical concepts on the other. For both of these knowledge-producing domains, the common denominator is the paramount challenges of framing and communicating uncertainty and of managing the pitfalls of politicization. National Intelligence and Science is one of the first attempts to analyze these converging domains and the implications of their convergence, in terms of both more scientific approaches to intelligence problems and intelligence approaches to scientific problems. Science and intelligence constitute, as the book spells out, two remarkably similar and interlinked domains of knowledge production, yet ones that remain traditionally separated by a deep political, cultural, and epistemological divide. Looking ahead, the two twentieth-century monoliths--the scientific and the intelligence estates--are becoming simply outdated in their traditional form. The risk society is closing the divide, though in a direction not foreseen by the proponents of turning intelligence analysis into a science, or the new production of scientific knowledge.
Categories: Political Science

Analyzing Intelligence

Analyzing Intelligence

National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow, 8. Often “raw,” or unanalyzed, intelligence from a sensitive human or technical source is provided directly to senior policymakers. This kind of intelligence can be ignored, ...

Author: Roger Z. George

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 9781626160262

Category: Political Science

Page: 400

View: 226

Analyzing Intelligence, now in a revised and extensively updated second edition, assesses the state of the profession of intelligence analysis from the practitioners point of view. The contributors—most of whom have held senior positions in the US intelligence community—review the evolution of the field, the rise of new challenges, pitfalls in analysis, and the lessons from new training and techniques designed to deal with 21st century national security problems. This second edition updates this indispensable book with new chapters that highlight advances in applying more analytic rigor to analysis, along with expertise-building, training, and professional development. New chapters by practitioners broaden the original volume’s discussion of the analyst-policymaker relationship by addressing analytic support to the military customer as well as by demonstrating how structured analysis can benefit military commanders on the battlefield. Analyzing Intelligence is written for national security practitioners such as producers and users of intelligence, as well as for scholars and students seeking to understand the nature and role of intelligence analysis, its strengths and weaknesses, and steps that can improve it and lead it to a more recognizable profession. The most comprehensive and up-to-date volume on professional intelligence analysis as practiced in the US Government, Analyzing Intelligence is essential reading for practitioners and users of intelligence analysis, as well as for students and scholars in security studies and related fields.
Categories: Political Science