Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter,Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova

Publisher: Stanford Security Studies

ISBN: 9780804769709

Category: Political Science

Page: 471

View: 7008


This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.

The Ethics of Nuclear Weapons Dissemination

Moral Dilemmas of Aspiration, Avoidance and Prevention

Author: Thomas E. Doyle, II

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136229493

Category: Political Science

Page: 174

View: 8974


This book examines the moral dilemmas of nuclear dissemination, and the justifications of both nuclear pursuit and avoidance by contemporary states. Applying Constructivist methodologies and moral theory, the author analyses a core set of moral dilemmas that ensnare decision-makers amongst state and non-state nuclear aspirants, as well as amongst states committed to preventing horizontal proliferation. The book shows that the character, structure and implications of these dilemmas have not yet been adequately understood or appreciated, and that such an understanding is necessary for an effective set of nonproliferation policies. Furthermore, it shows that the dilemmas’ force and political policy import are evident in the 'discourses' that diverse actors undertake to defend their nuclear choices, and how the dilemmas of nuclear aspirants are implicated in those of nuclear preventers. The author advocates a number of policy recommendations that reinforce some already made by scholars and experts but, more importantly, others that advise significantly different courses of action. The book reveals how the moral dilemmas of nuclear aspiration, avoidance, and prevention constitute the security dilemmas and paradoxes that comprise much of the 21st century security environment. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international relations, ethics, and international security studies.

Achieving Nuclear Ambitions

Scientists, Politicians, and Proliferation

Author: Jacques E. C. Hymans

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 0521767008

Category: Law

Page: 315

View: 9564


From Iraq to Iran and from Libya to North Korea, recent attempts to join the club of nuclear powers have tended to lose their momentum or even to fail outright. This book shows how developing country rulers unintentionally thwart their own nuclear ambitions by undermining their scientific and technical workers.

Strategic Nuclear Sharing

Author: J. Schofield

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137298456

Category: Political Science

Page: 217

View: 9869


The sharing of nuclear weapons technology between states is unexpected, because nuclear weapons are such a powerful instrument in international politics, but sharing is not rare. This book proposes a theory to explain nuclear sharing and surveys its rich history from its beginnings in the Second World War.

US National Security Reform

Reassessing the National Security Act of 1947

Author: Heidi B. Demarest,Erica D. Borghard

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISBN: 1351171542

Category: History

Page: 240

View: 9097


This collection of essays considers the evolution of American institutions and processes for forming and implementing US national security policy, and offers diverse policy prescriptions for reform to confront an evolving and uncertain security environment. Twelve renowned scholars and practitioners of US national security policy take up the question of whether the national security institutions we have are the ones we need to confront an uncertain future. Topics include a characterization of future threats to national security, organizational structure and leadership of national security bureaucracies, the role of the US Congress in national security policy making and oversight, and the importance of strategic planning within the national security enterprise. The book concludes with concrete recommendations for policy makers, most of which can be accomplished under the existing and enduring National Security Act. This book will be of much interest to students of US national security, US foreign policy, Cold War studies, public policy and IR in general.

Crisis Stability and Nuclear Exchange Risks on the Subcontinent

Major Trends and the Iran Factor

Author: Thomas Francis Lynch

Publisher: N.A


Category: Deterrence (Strategy)

Page: 39

View: 6124


Crisis stability -- the probability that political tensions and low-level conflict will not erupt into a major war between India and Pakistan -- is less certain in 2013 than at any time since their sequential nuclear weapons tests of 1998. India's vast and growing spending on large conventional military forces, at least in part as a means to dissuade Pakistan's tolerance of (or support for) insurgent and terrorist activity against India, coupled with Pakistan's post-2006 accelerated pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons as a means to offset this Indian initiative, have greatly increased the risk of a future Indo-Pakistani military clash or terrorist incident escalating to nuclear exchange. America's limited abilities to prevent the escalation of an Indo-Pakistani crisis toward major war are best served by continuing a significant military and political presence in Afghanistan and diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue with Pakistan well beyond 2014. Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability will not directly affect the ongoing erosion of crisis stability in South Asia. However, a declared or a declared and tested nuclear Iranian weapons capability almost certainly will inspire Saudi Arabia's acquisition of its own nuclear deterrent and involve Pakistan. If American efforts to halt Iran or to extend acceptable deterrence to Riyadh fail, then Washington must accept that Islamabad will transfer some form of nuclear weapons capability to Saudi Arabia as part of the Kingdom's pursuit of an autonomous nuclear deterrent versus Tehran. Washington's best policy option is to maintain sufficient diplomatic and military relevance in Islamabad and Riyadh to limit transfer impact upon Israel's threat calculus and to constrain Gulf-wide proliferation that could excite Indian fears for its nuclear deterrent in a manner that stokes a presently dormant nuclear arms race between India and China.