Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470864419

Category: Science

Page: 254

View: 6104

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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms
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Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119961076

Category: Science

Page: 288

View: 9260

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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).
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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Author: Daniel S. Wilks

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 0128165278

Category: Computers

Page: 840

View: 5034

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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Fourth Edition, continues the tradition of trying to meet the needs of students, researchers and operational practitioners. This updated edition not only includes expanded sections built upon the strengths of the prior edition, but also provides new content where there have been advances in the field, including Bayesian analysis, forecast verification and a new chapter dedicated to ensemble forecasting. Provides a strong, yet concise, introduction to applied statistics that is specific to atmospheric science Contains revised and expanded sections on nonparametric tests, test multiplicity and quality uncertainty descriptors Includes new sections on ANOVA, quantile regression, the lasso and other regularization methods, regression trees, changepoint detection, ensemble forecasting and exponential smoothing
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Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Statistics

Author: Alan E. Gelfand,Montserrat Fuentes,Jennifer A. Hoeting,Richard Lyttleton Smith

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1351648543

Category: Mathematics

Page: 854

View: 1206

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This handbook focuses on the enormous literature applying statistical methodology and modelling to environmental and ecological processes. The 21st century statistics community has become increasingly interdisciplinary, bringing a large collection of modern tools to all areas of application in environmental processes. In addition, the environmental community has substantially increased its scope of data collection including observational data, satellite-derived data, and computer model output. The resultant impact in this latter community has been substantial; no longer are simple regression and analysis of variance methods adequate. The contribution of this handbook is to assemble a state-of-the-art view of this interface. Features: An internationally regarded editorial team. A distinguished collection of contributors. A thoroughly contemporary treatment of a substantial interdisciplinary interface. Written to engage both statisticians as well as quantitative environmental researchers. 34 chapters covering methodology, ecological processes, environmental exposure, and statistical methods in climate science.
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Environmental Modelling

Finding Simplicity in Complexity

Author: John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118351487

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 496

View: 1328

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Simulation models are an established method used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines. Central to the concept of this second edition is the idea that environmental systems are complex, open systems. The authors present the diversity of approaches to dealing with environmental complexity and then encourage readers to make comparisons between these approaches and between different disciplines. Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity 2nd edition is divided into four main sections: An overview of methods and approaches to modelling. State of the art for modelling environmental processes Tools used and models for management Current and future developments. The second edition evolves from the first by providing additional emphasis and material for those students wishing to specialize in environmental modelling. This edition: Focuses on simplifying complex environmental systems. Reviews current software, tools and techniques for modelling. Gives practical examples from a wide variety of disciplines, e.g. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology and engineering. Has an associated website containing colour images, links to WWW resources and chapter support pages, including data sets relating to case studies, exercises and model animations. This book is suitable for final year undergraduates and postgraduates in environmental modelling, environmental science, civil engineering and biology who will already be familiar with the subject and are moving on to specialize in the field. It is also designed to appeal to professionals interested in the environmental sciences, including environmental consultants, government employees, civil engineers, geographers, ecologists, meteorologists, and geochemists.
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Entropy Theory in Hydrologic Science and Engineering

Author: Vijay P. Singh

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 0071835474

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 848

View: 1716

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A THOROUGH INTRODUCTION TO ENTROPY THEORY AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING This comprehensive volume addresses basic concepts of entropy theory from a hydrologic engineering perspective. The application of these concepts to a wide range of hydrologic engineering problems is discussed in detail. The book is divided into sections--preliminaries, rainfall and evapotranspiration, subsurface flow, surface flow, and environmental considerations. Helpful equations, solutions, tables, and diagrams are included throughout this practical resource. Entropy Theory in Hydrologic Science and Engineering covers: Introduction to entropy theory Maximum entropy production principle Performance measures Morphological analysis Evaluation and design of sampling and measurement networks Precipitation variability Rainfall frequency distributions Evaluation of precipitation forecasting schemes Assessment of potential water resources availability Evaporation Infiltration Soil moisture Groundwater flow Rainfall-runoff modeling Streamflow simulation Hydrologic frequency analysis Streamflow forecasting River flow regime classification Sediment yield Eco-index
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Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management

Author: Eva Boegh

Publisher: International Assn of Hydrological Sciences

ISBN: N.A

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 507

View: 7548

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The contributions in this volume consider the uncertainties in the end-to-end prediction of hydrological variables, beginning with the atmospheric driving, and ending with the hydrological calculations for scientifically-sound decisions in sustainable water management.
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GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Modeling

Author: David J. Maguire,Michael Batty,Michael F. Goodchild

Publisher: Esri Press

ISBN: 9781589481305

Category: Science

Page: 480

View: 2730

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A guide for geographic analysts, modelers, software engineers, and GIS professionals, this book discusses agent-based modeling, dynamic feedback and simulation modeling, as well as links between models and GIS software. This collection also presents a state-of-the-art understanding of applications based on environmental, atmospheric, hydrological, urban, social, health, and economic models.
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