Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 9781588367679

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 368

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Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
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Islamic Finance in the Global Economy

Author: Ibrahim Warde

Publisher: Edinburgh University Press

ISBN: 0748631674

Category: Religion

Page: 288

View: 3602

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Islamic finance is growing at an astonishing rate and is now a $1200 billion industry, with operations in over 100 countries. This book explains the paradox of a system rooted in the medieval era thriving in the global economy. Coverage is exhaustively comprehensive, defining Islamic finance in its broadest sense to include banks, mutual funds, securities firms and insurance (or takaful) companies. The author places Islamic finance in the context of the global political and economic system and covers a wide variety of issues such as the underlying principles of Islamic finance, the range of Islamic financial products, and country differences. He also discusses a number of economic, political, regulatory and religious concerns and challenges. This second edition has been completely revised and updated to take into account the great changes and developments in the field in recent times. It includes the impact of the 9/11 and 7/7 terrorist attacks on the industry, the new forms of interaction with Western financial institutions, the emergence of innovative products such as sukuk, attempts by a broad range of financial centres - including Kuala Lumpur, London, Singapore, Bahrain and Dubai - to become global hubs of Islamic finance, and the repercussions of the 2008 global financial meltdown on Islamic institutions.
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Handbook of the Psychology of Science

Author: Gregory J. Feist, PhD,Michael E. Gorman, PhD

Publisher: Springer Publishing Company

ISBN: 0826106242

Category: Psychology

Page: 544

View: 654

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"Highly recommended."--Choice: Current Reviews for Academic Libraries This handbook is the definitive resource for scholars and students interested in how research and theory within each of the major domains of psychologyódevelopmental, cognitive, personality, and socialóhave been applied to understand the nature of scientific thought and behavior. Edited by two esteemed pioneers in the emerging discipline of the psychology of science, it is the first empirically based compendium of its time. The handbook provides a comprehensive examination of how scientific thinking is learned and evolves from infancy to adolescence and adulthood, and combines developmental and cognitive approaches to show the categorical similarities and differences in thinking between children, adolescents, adults, and scientists. Chapters highlight the breadth and depth of psychological perspectives in the studies of science, from creativity and genius, gender, and conflict and cooperation, to postmodernism and psychobiography. A section on applications offers findings and ideas that can be put to use by educators, policymakers, and science administrators. Contributors examine the importance of mental models in solving difficult technical problems, and the significance of leadership and organizational structure in successful innovation. The final section of the book is devoted to the future of this new field, focusing on how to continue to develop a healthy psychology of science. Key Features: Presents the only empirically based compendium of current knowledge about the psychology of scientific thought and behavior Edited by two pioneers in the discipline of psychology of science Describes how scientific thinking is learned and changes throughout the life span Addresses creativity and genius, gender, conflict and cooperation, postmodernism, and psychobiography Covers applications of the psychology of science that can be used by educators, policymakers, and science administrators
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The Great Crash of 1929

A Reconciliation of Theory and Evidence

Author: A. Kabiri

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137372893

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 236

View: 3241

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Understanding the American stock market boom and bust of the 1920s is vital for formulating policies to combat the potentially deleterious effects of busts on the economy. Using new data, Kabiri explains what led to the 1920s stock market boom and 1929 crash and looks at whether 1929 was a bubble or not and whether it could have been anticipated.
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Consider a Spherical Patent

IP and Patenting in Technology Business

Author: Joseph E. Gortych

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1439888051

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 267

View: 8256

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Get Critical Insight into the Modern Patenting Scene We are now living in the "IP Era of the Information Age" where technology businesses are placing increasing emphasis on intellectual property (IP) as a way to add to their bottom lines. As a consequence, those working in a technology business or organization will inevitably be thrust into working with IP in one or more of its various forms. This increasing emphasis on IP matters requires technology workers to have at least a basic practical understanding of IP, particularly patents, so that they can effectively participate in their organizations’ IP and patenting efforts. Consider a Spherical Patent: IP and Patenting in Technology Business provides an unconventional and unvarnished examination of patents and the reality of how they are used and abused in technology business. The book starts with an overview of patents and how the patenting universe has become so complex, and warns of the danger of making "spherical," simplifying assumptions about patents and patent-related matters. It then takes a look at the cast of characters in the modern patenting world and the roles they play at the "IP Bazaar." The book goes on to explain the increasing emphasis in today’s modern IP world of leveraging patents in large collections of patents called "portfolios." The author describes how the fractal nature of innovation allows for the exponential growth of patents to densely pack an "IP space," including how this packing can exceed its normal limits and the adverse consequences. He also explores the evolution and importance of core to improvement to commercialization patents. A modern view of patents based on "quantum patent mechanics" explains some of the mysterious patent-related phenomena that are otherwise inexplicable using "classical patent mechanics." Using examples of actual patents and patent portfolios of real technology businesses, the author discusses how patenting strategies are defined based on "central organizing principles" behind why patents are being pursued. He describes the operational realities of running an internal patenting system as well as how to avoid the prevalent trap of accepting a high degree of disorder (entropy) in the business’s patenting system. He also takes a close look at other problematic areas, such as the use and abuse of provisional patent applications and how "no shame claims" can be issued by the patent office and the havoc they can create.
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The Death of Money

The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System

Author: James Rickards

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101637242

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 384

View: 401

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The next financial collapse will resemble nothing in history. . . . Deciding upon the best course to follow will require comprehending a minefield of risks, while poised at a crossroads, pondering the death of the dollar. The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government. In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos. James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.
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Innovation, Strategy and Risk in Construction

Turning Serendipity into Capability

Author: Martin Loosemore

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136673547

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 280

View: 8505

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Innovation, Strategy and Risk in Construction integrates insights from business and government leaders with contemporary research, to help built environment professionals turn serendipity to their own advantage by building greater innovative and adaptive capacity into their operations. Accessible and full of practical examples, the book argues that traditional business strategies which seek to systematise innovation and eliminate uncertainty need to be balanced with more flexible approaches which acknowledge and harness uncertainty. The missing key to innovation, it is argued, is to turn serendipity into capability. The author proposes a simple model which allows managers to tap into the increasingly dynamic and interconnected nature of the construction industry. Innovation does not occur in isolation within individual firms, but through collaboration. Each stakeholder in the construction industry has a responsibility to drive innovation, and this book will be key reading for consultants, contractors, subcontractors, suppliers and clients, as well as policy makers and all serious students of construction management.
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The PerformanceStat Potential

A Leadership Strategy for Producing Results

Author: Robert D. Behn

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

ISBN: 0815725280

Category: Political Science

Page: 413

View: 6483

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It started two decades ago with CompStat in the New York City Police Department, and quickly jumped to police agencies across the U.S. and other nations. It was adapted by Baltimore, which created CitiStat—the first application of this leadership strategy to an entire jurisdiction. Today, governments at all levels employ PerformanceStat: a focused effort by public executives to exploit the power of purpose and motivation, responsibility and discretion, data and meetings, analysis and learning, feedback and follow-up—all to improve government's performance. Here, Harvard leadership and management guru Robert Behn analyzes the leadership behaviors at the core of PerformanceStat to identify how they work to produce results. He examines how the leaders of a variety of public organizations employ the strategy—the way the Los Angeles County Department of Public Social Services uses its DPSSTATS to promote economic independence, how the City of New Orleans uses its BlightStat to eradicate blight in city neighborhoods, and what the Federal Emergency Management Agency does with its FEMAStat to ensure that the lessons from each crisis response, recovery, and mitigation are applied in the future. How best to harness the strategy's full capacity? The PerformanceStat Potential explains all.
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Stalking the Black Swan

Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility

Author: Kenneth A. Posner

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 9780231521673

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 8292

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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
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