Expert Political Judgment

How Good is It? how Can We Know?

Author: Philip Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 0691123020

Category: Political Science

Page: 321

View: 5453

DOWNLOAD NOW »

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
Release

Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition

Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 0691175977

Category: Political Science

Page: 368

View: 2680

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Release

Cents and Sensibility

What Economics Can Learn from the Humanities

Author: Gary Saul Morson,Morton Schapiro

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 0691183228

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 336

View: 2799

DOWNLOAD NOW »

In Cents and Sensibility, an eminent literary critic and a leading economist make the case that the humanities—especially the study of literature—offer economists ways to make their models more realistic, their predictions more accurate, and their policies more effective and just. Arguing that Adam Smith’s heirs include Austen, Chekhov, and Tolstoy as much as Keynes and Friedman, Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro trace the connection between Adam Smith’s great classic, The Wealth of Nations, and his less celebrated book on ethics, The Theory of Moral Sentiments. The authors contend that a few decades later, Jane Austen invented her groundbreaking method of novelistic narration in order to give life to the empathy that Smith believed essential to humanity. More than anyone, the great writers can offer economists something they need—a richer appreciation of behavior, ethics, culture, and narrative. Original, provocative, and inspiring, Cents and Sensibility demonstrates the benefits of a dialogue between economics and the humanities and also shows how looking at real-world problems can revitalize the study of literature itself. Featuring a new preface, this book brings economics back to its place in the human conversation.
Release

Learning to Think Strategically

Author: Julia Sloan

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISBN: 1134853041

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 286

View: 5939

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Strategic thinking has become a core competency for business leaders globally. Overused and under-defined, the term is often used interchangeably with other strategic management terms. This textbook delineates and defines strategic thinking as a conceptual cognitive capability, focusing on the nonlinear, divergent, and informal nature of strategic thinking. In this third edition of a popular text, the author provides an unconventional definition and model for strategic thinking based on critical theory. This research-based book introduces the concept as the foundation of business strategy that is distinct from strategic planning and strategic implementation. New features, including executive summaries and key critical reflective questions, along with new and updated figures, make the book vital reading for MBA, leadership development, and executive education students. The practical nature of this book also makes it valuable for business and policy executives, managers, and emerging leaders.
Release

Complex Deterrence

Strategy in the Global Age

Author: T. V. Paul,Patrick M. Morgan,James J. Wirtz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 0226650049

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 360

View: 4822

DOWNLOAD NOW »

As the costs of a preemptive foreign policy in Iraq have become clear, strategies such as containment and deterrence have been gaining currency among policy makers. This comprehensive book offers an agenda for the contemporary practice of deterrence—especially as it applies to nuclear weapons—in an increasingly heterogeneous global and political setting. Moving beyond the precepts of traditional deterrence theory, this groundbreaking volume offers insights for the use of deterrence in the modern world, where policy makers may encounter irrational actors, failed states, religious zeal, ambiguous power relationships, and other situations where the traditional rules of statecraft do not apply. A distinguished group of contributors here examines issues such as deterrence among the Great Powers; the problems of regional and nonstate actors; and actors armed with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. Complex Deterrence will be a valuable resource for anyone facing the considerable challenge of fostering security and peace in the twenty-first century.
Release

Left Brain, Right Stuff

How Leaders Make Winning Decisions

Author: Phil Rosenzweig

Publisher: Profile Books

ISBN: 184765973X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 435

View: 9204

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Dozens of books have been published recently on the errors and biases that affect our judgments and choices. Drawing on cognitive science, their lessons are excellent for many kinds of decisions - consumer choice and financial investments, for example - but stop short of addressing many of the most important decisions we face in management, where we can actively influence outcomes and where competitive forces mean we have to outperform rivals. As Phil Rosenzweig shows, drawing on examples from business, sports and politics, this sort of decision-making relies on mastering two very different abilities. First, the analytical problem-solving skills associated with the brain's left hemisphere; and second, what Tom Wolfe called 'the Right Stuff': the ability to take calculated risks. Bringing fresh and often surprising insights to topics including confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, leadership and authenticity, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, Left Brain, Right Stuff, the myth-busting follow-up to The Halo Effect, explains how to perform when making even the most difficult decisions.
Release

The Quest for Alpha

The Holy Grail of Investing

Author: Larry E. Swedroe

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781118005705

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 208

View: 8869

DOWNLOAD NOW »

The final word on passive vs. active investing The debate on active investing-stock picking and market timing-versus passive investing-markets are highly efficient and almost impossible to outperform-has raged for decades. Which side is right? In The Quest for Alpha: The Holy Grail of Investing, author Larry E. Swedroe puts an end to the debate, proving once and for all that active investing is likely to prove futile as the associated expenses-costs, fees, and time spent analyzing individual stocks and the overall market-are likely to exceed any benefits gained. The book Presents research, data, and quotations that reveal it's extremely difficult to outperform the market Explains why investors should focus on asset allocation, fund construction, costs, tax efficiency, and the building of a globally diversified portfolio that minimizes, if not eliminates, the taking of idiosyncratic, uncompensated risks Other titles by Swedroe: The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need and The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan Investors are on a never-ending search for a money manager who will deliver returns above the appropriate risk-adjusted benchmark, aka the "Holy Grail of Investing." The Quest for Alpha demonstrates that it's a loser's game-while it's possible to win, it's so unlikely that you shouldn't try.
Release

The Success Equation

Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing

Author: Michael J. Mauboussin

Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press

ISBN: 1422184242

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 4773

DOWNLOAD NOW »

“Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck.” — From the Introduction The trick, of course, is figuring out just how many of our successes (and failures) can be attributed to each—and how we can learn to tell the difference ahead of time. In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives—yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions. The Success Equation helps us move toward this goal by: • Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant • Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck • Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to work Showcasing Mauboussin’s trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, The Success Equation is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions—in business and in life.
Release

The Practitioner's Guide to Governance as Leadership

Building High-Performing Nonprofit Boards

Author: Cathy A. Trower

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118237366

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 6662

DOWNLOAD NOW »

THE PRACTITIONER'S GUIDE TO GOVERNANCE AS LEADERSHIP The Practitioner's Guide to Governance as Leadership offers a resource that shows how to achieve excellence and peak performance in the boardroom by putting into practice the groundbreaking model that was introduced in the book, Governance as Leadership. This proven model of effective governance explores how to attain proficiency in three governance modes or mindsets: fiduciary, strategic, and generative. Throughout the book, author Cathy Trower offers an understanding of the Governance as Leadership model through a wealth of illustrative examples of high-performing nonprofit boards. She explores the challenges of implementing governance as leadership and suggests ideas for getting started and overcoming barriers to progress. In addition, Trower provides practical guidance for optimizing the practices that will improve organizational performance including: flow (high skill and high purpose), discernment, deliberation, divergent thinking, insight, meaningfulness, consequence to the organization, and integrity. In short, the book is a combination of sophisticated thinking, instructive vignettes, illustrative documents, and practical recommendations. The book includes concrete strategies that can help improve critical thinking in the boardroom, a board's overall performance as a team, as well as information for creating a strong governance culture and understanding what is required of an effective CEO and a chairperson. To determine a board's fitness and help the members move forward, the book contains three types of assessments: board members evaluate each other; individual board member assessments; and an overall team assessment. This practitioner's guide is written for nonprofit board members, chief executives, senior staff members, and anyone who wants to reflect on governance, discern how to govern better, and achieve higher performance in the process. Email: [email protected] Website: www.trowerandtrower.com
Release

The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law

Author: Eyal Zamir,Doron Teichman

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199397953

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 496

View: 7080

DOWNLOAD NOW »

The past twenty years have witnessed a surge in behavioral studies of law and law-related issues. These studies have challenged the application of the rational-choice model to legal analysis and introduced a more accurate and empirically grounded model of human behavior. This integration of economics, psychology, and law is breaking exciting new ground in legal theory and the social sciences, shedding a new light on age-old legal questions as well as cutting edge policy issues. The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and Law brings together leading scholars of law, psychology, and economics to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of this field of research, including its strengths and limitations as well as a forecast of its future development. Its 29 chapters organized in four parts. The first part provides a general overview of behavioral economics. The second part comprises four chapters introducing and criticizing the contribution of behavioral economics to legal theory. The third part discusses specific behavioral phenomena, their ramifications for legal policymaking, and their reflection in extant law. Finally, the fourth part analyzes the contribution of behavioral economics to fifteen legal spheres ranging from core doctrinal areas such as contracts, torts and property to areas such as taxation and antitrust policy.
Release