The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0143125087

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 534

View: 2801

The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.
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Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Author: Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner

Publisher: Crown

ISBN: 080413670X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 5721

A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.
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The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781623150525

Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory

Page: 46

View: 4847

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.
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Chance Rules

An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics

Author: Brian Everitt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780387774152

Category: Mathematics

Page: 142

View: 4068

Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.
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Surfing Uncertainty

Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind

Author: Andy Clark

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

ISBN: 0190217014

Category: Forecasting

Page: 401

View: 6736

This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.
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The Theory that Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: Yale University Press

ISBN: 0300175094

Category: Mathematics

Page: 335

View: 5038

Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
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The Art of Data Analysis

How to Answer Almost Any Question Using Basic Statistics

Author: Kristin H. Jarman

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118413342

Category: Mathematics

Page: 190

View: 2360

A friendly and accessible approach to applying statistics in the real world With an emphasis on critical thinking, The Art of Data Analysis: How to Answer Almost Any Question Using Basic Statistics presents fun and unique examples, guides readers through the entire data collection and analysis process, and introduces basic statistical concepts along the way. Leaving proofs and complicated mathematics behind, the author portrays the more engaging side of statistics and emphasizes its role as a problem-solving tool. In addition, light-hearted case studies illustrate the application of statistics to real data analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of commonly used techniques. Written for the growing academic and industrial population that uses statistics in everyday life, The Art of Data Analysis: How to Answer Almost Any Question Using Basic Statistics highlights important issues that often arise when collecting and sifting through data. Featured concepts include: • Descriptive statistics • Analysis of variance • Probability and sample distributions • Confidence intervals • Hypothesis tests • Regression • Statistical correlation • Data collection • Statistical analysis with graphs Fun and inviting from beginning to end, The Art of Data Analysis is an ideal book for students as well as managers and researchers in industry, medicine, or government who face statistical questions and are in need of an intuitive understanding of basic statistical reasoning.
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Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data

Author: Charles Wheelan

Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company

ISBN: 0393089827

Category: Mathematics

Page: 302

View: 5739

“Brilliant, funny . . . the best math teacher you never had.”—San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
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The Hedgehog and the Fox

An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History, Second Edition

Author: Isaiah Berlin

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 1400846633

Category: Philosophy

Page: 144

View: 2631

"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.
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Operational Amplifier Noise

Techniques and Tips for Analyzing and Reducing Noise

Author: Art Kay

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 0080942431

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 248

View: 7027

Arthur Kay’s exciting new publication is a must have for practicing, professional electrical engineers. This comprehensive guide shows engineers how to design amplifiers and associated electronics to minimize noise, providing tricks, rules-of-thumb, and analysis to create successful low noise circuits. Forget the classical textbook traps of equations, virtual grounds, and a lot of double-speak, the novel but educational presentation used here uses definition-by -example and straight-forward analysis. This is the ultimate reference book for engineers who don't have the time to read, since the concepts are presented in detailed pictures and then repeated in the text for those who like both. Operational amplifiers play a vital role in modern electronics design. Today, op amps serve as the interfaces between the digital world of microprocessors, microcontrollers, and other digital circuits and the analog "real world". If an analog signal must be amplified, conditioned, filtered, or converted to be used by a digital system, an op amp is almost always involved. Noise is an unwanted signal that will corrupt or distort the desired signal, and veteran engineers as well as new college graduates are often faced with a lack of experience in noise analysis for operational amplifiers. The author has created a publication that is packed with essential information, while still being accessible to all readers. Clear, definition-by-example presentation allows for immediate use of techniques introduced Tricks and rules-of-thumb, derived from author's decades of experience Extreme use of figures for rapid absorption of concepts Concise text explains the key points in all figures Accessible to all types of readers Analysis and design of low-noise circuits using op amps, including design tradeoffs for low-noise Desktop reference for designing low-noise op amp circuits for novice to experienced engineers Accurate measurement and prediction of intrinsic noise levels, using analysis by hand and SPICE simulation
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The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary

Author: N.A

Publisher: Callisto Media Inc

ISBN: 1623150531

Category: Business & Economics

Page: N.A

View: 2705

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.
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Radio Frequency Principles and Applications

The Generation, Propagation, and Reception of Signals and Noise

Author: Albert A. Smith

Publisher: IEEE

ISBN: 9780780369009

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 219

View: 4017

Now in one convenient volume you can have all the information you need on real-world applications of electromagnetic theory, including the prediction, analysis, and measurement of electromagnetic fields and their effects. Radio Frequency Principles and Applications will guide you from the basics of electromagnetic theory to a full range of new and vital applications.
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Double Cross

The True Story of the D-Day Spies

Author: Ben Macintyre

Publisher: A&C Black

ISBN: 1408830620

Category: Deception (Military science)

Page: 417

View: 5418

The number one bestselling author of Agent Zigzag and Operation Mincemeat exposes the true story of the D Day Spies.
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The Predictioneer's Game

Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

Author: Bruce Bueno De Mesquita

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 1588369080

Category: Political Science

Page: 272

View: 1333

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. From the Hardcover edition.
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Big Data

A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think

Author: Viktor Mayer-Schönberger,Kenneth Cukier

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

ISBN: 0544002938

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 8116

A revelatory exploration of the hottest trend in technology and the dramatic impact it will have on the economy, science, and society at large. Which paint color is most likely to tell you that a used car is in good shape? How can officials identify the most dangerous New York City manholes before they explode? And how did Google searches predict the spread of the H1N1 flu outbreak? The key to answering these questions, and many more, is big data. “Big data” refers to our burgeoning ability to crunch vast collections of information, analyze it instantly, and draw sometimes profoundly surprising conclusions from it. This emerging science can translate myriad phenomena—from the price of airline tickets to the text of millions of books—into searchable form, and uses our increasing computing power to unearth epiphanies that we never could have seen before. A revolution on par with the Internet or perhaps even the printing press, big data will change the way we think about business, health, politics, education, and innovation in the years to come. It also poses fresh threats, from the inevitable end of privacy as we know it to the prospect of being penalized for things we haven’t even done yet, based on big data’s ability to predict our future behavior. In this brilliantly clear, often surprising work, two leading experts explain what big data is, how it will change our lives, and what we can do to protect ourselves from its hazards. Big Data is the first big book about the next big thing. www.big-data-book.com
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Ripples in Spacetime

Einstein, Gravitational Waves, and the Future of Astronomy

Author: Govert Schilling

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674971663

Category: BIOGRAPHY & AUTOBIOGRAPHY

Page: 340

View: 425

The detection of gravitational waves—ripples in spacetime—has already been called the scientific coup of this century. Govert Schilling recounts the struggles that threatened to derail the quest and describes the detector’s astounding precision, weaving far-reaching discoveries about the universe into a gripping story of ambition and perseverance.
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Future Babble

Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best

Author: Daniel Gardner

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101476095

Category: Psychology

Page: 320

View: 7291

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
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Sound Reproduction

The Acoustics and Psychoacoustics of Loudspeakers and Rooms

Author: Floyd E. Toole

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317415094

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 490

View: 1409

Sound Reproduction: The Acoustics and Psychoacoustics of Loudspeakers and Rooms, Third Edition explains the physical and perceptual processes that are involved in sound reproduction and demonstrates how to use the processes to create high-quality listening experiences in stereo and multichannel formats. Understanding the principles of sound production is necessary to achieve the goals of sound reproduction in spaces ranging from recording control rooms and home listening rooms to large cinemas. This revision brings new science-based perspectives on the performance of loudspeakers, room acoustics, measurements and equalization, all of which need to be appropriately used to ensure the accurate delivery of music and movie sound tracks from creators to listeners. The robust website (www.routledge.com/cw/toole) is the perfect companion to this necessary resource.
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Human Brain Function

Author: Karl J. Friston,Christopher D. Frith,Raymond J. Dolan,Cathy J. Price,Semir Zeki,John T. Ashburner,William D. Penny

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 9780080472959

Category: Medical

Page: 1144

View: 7919

This updated second edition provides the state of the art perspective of the theory, practice and application of modern non-invasive imaging methods employed in exploring the structural and functional architecture of the normal and diseased human brain. Like the successful first edition, it is written by members of the Functional Imaging Laboratory - the Wellcome Trust funded London lab that has contributed much to the development of brain imaging methods and their application in the last decade. This book should excite and intrigue anyone interested in the new facts about the brain gained from neuroimaging and also those who wish to participate in this area of brain science. * Represents an almost entirely new book from 1st edition, covering the rapid advances in methods and in understanding of how human brains are organized * Reviews major advances in cognition, perception, emotion and action * Introduces novel experimental designs and analytical techniques made possible with fMRI, including event-related designs and non-linear analysis
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The Signals Are Talking

Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream

Author: Amy Webb

Publisher: PublicAffairs

ISBN: 1610396677

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 336

View: 674

A Fast Company best book of the yearA Washington Post bestsellerWinner of the 2017 Axiom Business Book Award in Business Technology How do you tell a real trend from the merely trendy? How, for example, will a technology--like artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, bots, and the Internet of Things--affect us, our businesses, and workplaces? How will it eventually change the way we live, work, play, and think--and how should we prepare for it now? In The Signals Are Talking, noted futurist Amy Webb shows us how to analyze the "true signals"--those patterns that will coalesce into a trend with the potential to change everything-and land on the right side of disruption. The future, Webb shows, isn't something that happens to us passively. Using a proven, tested methodology, she enables us to see ahead and forecast what's to come--challenging us to create our own preferred futures.
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