Taking Chances

Winning with Probability

Author: John Haigh

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

ISBN: 0198526636

Category: Games

Page: 373

View: 3466

"What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--BOOK JACKET.
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Taking Chances

Winning with Probability

Author: John Haigh

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191500550

Category: Games & Activities

Page: 400

View: 6630

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.
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Head First Statistics

Author: Dawn Griffiths

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

ISBN: 059680086X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 716

View: 3693

Wouldn't it be great if there were a statistics book that made histograms, probability distributions, and chi square analysis more enjoyable than going to the dentist? Head First Statistics brings this typically dry subject to life, teaching you everything you want and need to know about statistics through engaging, interactive, and thought-provoking material, full of puzzles, stories, quizzes, visual aids, and real-world examples. Whether you're a student, a professional, or just curious about statistical analysis, Head First's brain-friendly formula helps you get a firm grasp of statistics so you can understand key points and actually use them. Learn to present data visually with charts and plots; discover the difference between taking the average with mean, median, and mode, and why it's important; learn how to calculate probability and expectation; and much more. Head First Statistics is ideal for high school and college students taking statistics and satisfies the requirements for passing the College Board's Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Exam. With this book, you'll: Study the full range of topics covered in first-year statistics Tackle tough statistical concepts using Head First's dynamic, visually rich format proven to stimulate learning and help you retain knowledge Explore real-world scenarios, ranging from casino gambling to prescription drug testing, to bring statistical principles to life Discover how to measure spread, calculate odds through probability, and understand the normal, binomial, geometric, and Poisson distributions Conduct sampling, use correlation and regression, do hypothesis testing, perform chi square analysis, and more Before you know it, you'll not only have mastered statistics, you'll also see how they work in the real world. Head First Statistics will help you pass your statistics course, and give you a firm understanding of the subject so you can apply the knowledge throughout your life.
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What's Luck Got to Do with It?

The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler's Illusion

Author: Joseph Mazur

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9781400834457

Category: Mathematics

Page: 296

View: 4696

Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling--including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers--and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.
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Understanding and Calculating the Odds

Probability Theory Basics and Calculus Guide for Beginners, with Applications in Games of Chance and Everyday Life

Author: Catalin Barboianu

Publisher: INFAROM Publishing

ISBN: 9738752019

Category: Games

Page: 420

View: 2199

This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)
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The Perfect Bet

How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling

Author: Adam Kucharski

Publisher: Basic Books

ISBN: 0465098592

Category: Mathematics

Page: 288

View: 3941

For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.
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Probability Guide to Gambling

The Mathematics of Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets

Author: Catalin Barboianu

Publisher: INFAROM Publishing

ISBN: 9738752035

Category: Games

Page: 316

View: 1898

Over the past two decades, gamblers have begun taking mathematics into account more seriously than ever before. While probability theory is the only rigorous theory modeling the uncertainty, even though in idealized conditions, numerical probabilities are viewed not only as mere mathematical information, but also as a decision-making criterion, especially in gambling. This book presents the mathematics underlying the major games of chance and provides a precise account of the odds associated with all gaming events. It begins by explaining in simple terms the meaning of the concept of probability for the layman and goes on to become an enlightening journey through the mathematics of chance, randomness and risk. It then continues with the basics of discrete probability (definitions, properties, theorems and calculus formulas), combinatorics and counting arguments for those interested in the supporting mathematics. These mathematic sections may be skipped by readers who do not have a minimal background in mathematics; these readers can skip directly to the Guide to Numerical Results to pick the odds and recommendations they need for the desired gaming situation. Doing so is possible due to the organization of that chapter, in which the results are listed at the end of each section, mostly in the form of tables. The chapter titled The Mathematics of Games of Chance presents these games not only as a good application field for probability theory, but also in terms of human actions where probability-based strategies can be tried to achieve favorable results. Through suggestive examples, the reader can see what are the experiments, events and probability fields in games of chance and how probability calculus works there. The main portion of this work is a collection of probability results for each type of game. Each game s section is packed with formulas and tables. Each section also contains a description of the game, a classification of the gaming events and the applicable probability calculations. The primary goal of this work is to allow the reader to quickly find the odds for a specific gaming situation, in order to improve his or her betting/gaming decisions. Every type of gaming event is tabulated in a logical, consistent and comprehensive manner. The complete methodology and complete or partial calculations are shown to teach players how to calculate probability for any situation, for every stage of the game for any game. Here, readers can find the real odds, returned by precise mathematical formulas and not by partial simulations that most software uses. Collections of odds are presented, as well as strategic recommendations based on those odds, where necessary, for each type of gaming situation. The book contains much new and original material that has not been published previously and provides great coverage of probabilities for the following games of chance: Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Texas Hold em Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets. Most of games of chance are predisposed to probability-based decisions. This is why the approach is not an exclusively statistical one (like many other titles published on this subject), but analytical: every gaming event is taken as an individual applied probability problem to solve. A special chapter defines the probability-based strategy and mathematically shows why such strategy is theoretically optimal."
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Chances Are--

Making Probability and Statistics Fun to Learn and Easy to Teach

Author: Nancy Pfenning

Publisher: PRUFROCK PRESS INC.

ISBN: 1882664353

Category: Education

Page: 176

View: 3447

Do you avoid teaching probability and statistics because the subjects seem confusing and complex? Are you less than sure about your knowledge of the topics? Let Chances Are take you and your students on a fun and exciting mathematical journey none of you will ever forget! Filled with easy-to-understand explanations and creative activities, this book offers teachers a simple method for teaching probability and statistics in an enjoyable way. This book can serve as an introduction for any beginner, from gifted and advanced students in upper elementary school, to high school students needing enrichment or preparation for Advanced Placement Statistics or future college courses. From helping to win a card game, to making life-or-death medical decisions, the uses of probability and statistics are virtually endless. For teachers of elementary students, the book offers simple, hands-on lessons and activities about probability and basic statistics. For teachers of older students, advanced statistical concepts are discussed and activities are provided. Reviewers have found the book's level to be appropriate for a wide range of ages, from fourth graders to postsecondary students.
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Probabilities

The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives

Author: Peter Olofsson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118898907

Category: Education

Page: 328

View: 1088

What are the chances? Find out in this entertaining exploration of probabilities in our everyday lives "If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations."--Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio's "Math Guy" and author of The Math Gene and The Math Instinct. "A delightful guide to the sometimes counterintuitive discipline of probability. Olofsson points out major ideas here, explains classic puzzles there, and everywhere makes free use of witty vignettes to instruct and amuse."--John Allen Paulos, Temple University, author of Innumeracy and A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. "Beautifully written, with fascinating examples and tidbits of information. Olofsson gently and persuasively shows us how to think clearly about the uncertainty that governs our lives."--John Haigh, University of Sussex, author of Taking Chances: Winning with Probability. From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives investigates the often-surprising effects of risk and chance in our everyday lives. With examples ranging from WWII espionage to the O.J. Simpson trial, from bridge to blackjack, from Julius Caesar to Jerry Seinfeld, the reader is taught how to think straight in a world of randomness and uncertainty. Throughout the book, readers learn: -Why it is not that surprising for someone to win the lottery twice -How a faulty probability calculation forced an innocent woman to spend three years in prison -How to place bets if you absolutely insist on gambling -How a newspaper turned an opinion poll into one of the greatest election blunders in history. Educational, eloquent, and entertaining, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives is the ideal companion for anyone who wants to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance.
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Mathematics of Games and Gambling

Author: Edward W. Packel

Publisher: MAA

ISBN: 9780883856468

Category: Mathematics

Page: 175

View: 6441

The new edition of a favourite, featuring fresh material such as betting in sport and bluffing in poker.
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The House Advantage

Playing the Odds to Win Big In Business

Author: Jeffrey Ma

Publisher: St. Martin's Press

ISBN: 9780230109681

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 5503

As part of the notorious MIT Team depicted in Ben Mezrich's now classic Bringing Down the House, Jeff Ma used math and statistics to master the game of blackjack and reap handsome rewards at casinos. Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.
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Calculated Bets

Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win

Author: Steven S. Skiena

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521009621

Category: Computers

Page: 232

View: 2453

A story of using computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully.
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The Doctrine of Chances

Or, a Method of Calculating the Probability of Events in Play

Author: Abraham de Moivre

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 110806180X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 280

View: 7869

A Huguenot exile in England, the French mathematician Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754) formed friendships with such luminaries as Edmond Halley and Isaac Newton. Making his living from private tuition, he became a fellow of the Royal Society in 1697 and published papers on a range of topics. Probability theory had been pioneered by Pascal, Fermat and Huygens, with further development by the Bernoullis. Originally published in 1718, The Doctrine of Chances was the first English textbook on the new science and so influential that for a time the whole subject was known by the title of the work. Reissued here is the revised and expanded 1738 second edition which contains the remarkable discovery that when a coin is tossed many times, the binomial distribution may be approximated by the normal distribution. This version of the central limit theorem stands as one of de Moivre's most significant contributions to mathematics.
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Against the Crowd

Author: Alan Potts

Publisher: Aesculus Press Ltd

ISBN: 9781904328186

Category:

Page: 128

View: 7699

The methods of a modern backer. Alan Potts is a full-time professional punter, who makes a steady and lucrative income from gambling. In this book, he reveals, for the first time, the techniques and methods that consistently give him the edge over bookmakers. Anyone who bets on horses will find valuable insights on how to become - and stay - a winner.
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Against the Gods

The Remarkable Story of Risk

Author: Peter L. Bernstein

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470534532

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 400

View: 5746

A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller "Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The New York Times "An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." -The Wall Street Journal "A lively panoramic book . . . Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." -Business Week "Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." -The Economist "[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." -Worth "No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." -Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers "With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it." -John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today. "An extremely readable history of risk." -Barron's "Fascinating . . . this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face." -Money "A singular achievement." -Times Literary Supplement "There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company." -The Australian
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Probability: A Very Short Introduction

Author: John Haigh

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199588481

Category: Mathematics

Page: 128

View: 1250

Making good decisions under conditions of uncertainty requires an appreciation of the way random chance works. In this Very Short Introduction, John Haigh provides a brief account of probability theory; explaining the philosophical approaches, discussing probability distributions, and looking its applications in science and economics.
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Chance, Luck, and Statistics

Author: Horace C. Levinson

Publisher: Courier Corporation

ISBN: 9780486419978

Category: Mathematics

Page: 357

View: 2009

In simple, non-technical language, this volume explores the fundamentals governing chance and applies them to sports, government, and business. Topics includenbsp;the theory of probability in relation to superstitions, betting odds, warfare,nbsp;social problems, stocks, and other areas. "Clear and lively ...nbsp;remarkably accurate." —Scientific Monthly.
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The Mathematics of Games

Author: John D. Beasley

Publisher: Courier Corporation

ISBN: 048615162X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 176

View: 7845

Lucid, instructive, and full of surprises, this book examines how simple mathematical analysis can throw unexpected light on games of every type, from poker to golf to the Rubik's cube. 1989 edition.
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The Mathematics of Games

An Introduction to Probability

Author: David G. Taylor

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1482235455

Category: Mathematics

Page: 426

View: 3973

The Mathematics of Games: An Introduction to Probability takes an inquiry-based approach to teaching the standard material for an introductory probability course. It also discusses different games and ideas that relate to the law of large numbers, as well as some more mathematical topics not typically found in similar books. Written in an accessible, student-friendly style, the book uses questions about various games (not just casino games) to motivate the mathematics. The author explains the examples in detail and offers ample exercises for students to practice their skills. Both "mini-excursions" appearing at the end of each chapter and the appendices delve further into interesting topics, including the St. Petersburg paradox, binomial and normal distributions, Fibonacci numbers, and the traveling salesman problem. By exploring games of chance, this text gives students a greater understanding of probability. It helps them develop the intuition necessary to make better, more informed decisions in strategic situations involving risk. It also prepares them to study the world of statistics.
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Statistics Hacks

Tips & Tools for Measuring the World and Beating the Odds

Author: Bruce Frey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

ISBN: 9780596553999

Category: Mathematics

Page: 358

View: 7453

Want to calculate the probability that an event will happen? Be able to spot fake data? Prove beyond doubt whether one thing causes another? Or learn to be a better gambler? You can do that and much more with 75 practical and fun hacks packed into Statistics Hacks. These cool tips, tricks, and mind-boggling solutions from the world of statistics, measurement, and research methods will not only amaze and entertain you, but will give you an advantage in several real-world situations-including business. This book is ideal for anyone who likes puzzles, brainteasers, games, gambling, magic tricks, and those who want to apply math and science to everyday circumstances. Several hacks in the first chapter alone-such as the "central limit theorem,", which allows you to know everything by knowing just a little-serve as sound approaches for marketing and other business objectives. Using the tools of inferential statistics, you can understand the way probability works, discover relationships, predict events with uncanny accuracy, and even make a little money with a well-placed wager here and there. Statistics Hacks presents useful techniques from statistics, educational and psychological measurement, and experimental research to help you solve a variety of problems in business, games, and life. You'll learn how to: Play smart when you play Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, roulette, dice games, or even the lottery Design your own winnable bar bets to make money and amaze your friends Predict the outcomes of baseball games, know when to "go for two" in football, and anticipate the winners of other sporting events with surprising accuracy Demystify amazing coincidences and distinguish the truly random from the only seemingly random--even keep your iPod's "random" shuffle honest Spot fraudulent data, detect plagiarism, and break codes How to isolate the effects of observation on the thing observed Whether you're a statistics enthusiast who does calculations in your sleep or a civilian who is entertained by clever solutions to interesting problems, Statistics Hacks has tools to give you an edge over the world's slim odds.
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