Prognostics

The Science of Making Predictions

Author: Kai Goebel,Indranil Roychoudhury

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781539074830

Category: Engineering systems

Page: 396

View: 6113

Prognostics is the science of making predictions of engineering systems. It is part of a suite of techniques that determine whether a system is behaving within nominal operational performance and - if it does not - that determine what is wrong and how long it will take until the system no longer fulfills certain functional requirements. This book presents the latest developments and research findings on the topic of prognostics by the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames Research Center. The book is intended to provide a practitioner with an understanding of the foundational concepts as well as practical tools to perform prognostics and health management on different types of engineering systems and in particular to predict remaining useful life.
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Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems: Methods and Techniques

Methods and Techniques

Author: Kadry, Seifedine

Publisher: IGI Global

ISBN: 146662096X

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 461

View: 9746

Industrial Prognostics predicts an industrial system’s lifespan using probability measurements to determine the way a machine operates. Prognostics are essential in determining being able to predict and stop failures before they occur. Therefore the development of dependable prognostic procedures for engineering systems is important to increase the system’s performance and reliability. Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems: Methods and Techniques provides widespread coverage and discussions on the methods and techniques of diagnosis and prognosis systems. Including practical examples to display the method’s effectiveness in real-world applications as well as the latest trends and research, this reference source aims to introduce fundamental theory and practice for system diagnosis and prognosis.
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Integrated System Health Management

Perspectives on Systems Engineering Techniques

Author: Jiuping Xu,Lei Xu

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 012813268X

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 472

View: 1477

ISHM is an innovative combination of technologies and methods that offers solutions to the reliability problems caused by increased complexities in design, manufacture, use conditions, and maintenance. Its key strength is in the successful integration of reliability (quantitative estimation of successful operation or failure), "diagnosibility" (ability to determine the fault source), and maintainability (how to maintain the performance of a system in operation). It draws on engineering issues such as advanced sensor monitoring, redundancy management, probabilistic reliability theory, artificial intelligence for diagnostics and prognostics, and formal validation methods, but also "quasi-technical" techniques and disciplines such as quality assurance, systems architecture and engineering, knowledge capture, information fusion, testability and maintainability, and human factors. This groundbreaking book defines and explains this new discipline, providing frameworks and methodologies for implementation and further research. Each chapter includes experiments, numerical examples, simulations and case studies. It is the ideal guide to this crucial topic for professionals or researchers in aerospace systems, systems engineering, production engineering, and reliability engineering. Solves prognostic information selection and decision-level information fusion issues Presents integrated evaluation methodologies for complex aerospace system health conditions and software system reliability assessment Proposes a framework to perform fault diagnostics with a distributed intelligent agent system and a data mining approach for multistate systems Explains prognostic methods that combine both the qualitative system running state prognostics and the quantitative remaining useful life prediction
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Clinical Prediction Models

A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating

Author: Ewout W. Steyerberg

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780387772448

Category: Medical

Page: 500

View: 4371

Prediction models are important in various fields, including medicine, physics, meteorology, and finance. Prediction models will become more relevant in the medical field with the increase in knowledge on potential predictors of outcome, e.g. from genetics. Also, the number of applications will increase, e.g. with targeted early detection of disease, and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. The current era of evidence-based medicine asks for an individualized approach to medical decision-making. Evidence-based medicine has a central place for meta-analysis to summarize results from randomized controlled trials; similarly prediction models may summarize the effects of predictors to provide individu- ized predictions of a diagnostic or prognostic outcome. Why Read This Book? My motivation for working on this book stems primarily from the fact that the development and applications of prediction models are often suboptimal in medical publications. With this book I hope to contribute to better understanding of relevant issues and give practical advice on better modelling strategies than are nowadays widely used. Issues include: (a) Better predictive modelling is sometimes easily possible; e.g. a large data set with high quality data is available, but all continuous predictors are dich- omized, which is known to have several disadvantages.
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Prognostics and Health Management of Engineering Systems

An Introduction

Author: Nam-Ho Kim,Dawn An,Joo-Ho Choi

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319447424

Category: Science

Page: 347

View: 5532

This book introduces the methods for predicting the future behavior of a system’s health and the remaining useful life to determine an appropriate maintenance schedule. The authors introduce the history, industrial applications, algorithms, and benefits and challenges of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) to help readers understand this highly interdisciplinary engineering approach that incorporates sensing technologies, physics of failure, machine learning, modern statistics, and reliability engineering. It is ideal for beginners because it introduces various prognostics algorithms and explains their attributes, pros and cons in terms of model definition, model parameter estimation, and ability to handle noise and bias in data, allowing readers to select the appropriate methods for their fields of application.Among the many topics discussed in-depth are:• Prognostics tutorials using least-squares• Bayesian inference and parameter estimation• Physics-based prognostics algorithms including nonlinear least squares, Bayesian method, and particle filter• Data-driven prognostics algorithms including Gaussian process regression and neural network• Comparison of different prognostics algorithms divThe authors also present several applications of prognostics in practical engineering systems, including wear in a revolute joint, fatigue crack growth in a panel, prognostics using accelerated life test data, fatigue damage in bearings, and more. Prognostics tutorials with a Matlab code using simple examples are provided, along with a companion website that presents Matlab programs for different algorithms as well as measurement data. Each chapter contains a comprehensive set of exercise problems, some of which require Matlab programs, making this an ideal book for graduate students in mechanical, civil, aerospace, electrical, and industrial engineering and engineering mechanics, as well as researchers and maintenance engineers in the above fields.
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Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics

Author: Joseph J. George

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 1483258602

Category: Science

Page: 684

View: 1612

Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics provides forecasters and pilots wanting to study more about the art and science of predicting weather with the essential aids and methods for making practical application of their knowledge of the fundamentals of the science of meteorology. The publication first underscores the forecast problem, construction of the prognostic pressure chart, and prediction of cyclogenesis. Discussions focus on forecasting information concerning new cyclogenesis, making operational and planning forecasts, cyclogenesis off the east coast of Asia, application of weather forecasts to operational problems, and cyclogenesis in the eastern United States. The text then ponders on forecasting the movement, deepening, and filling of cyclones and movement of anticyclones in North America. The manuscript takes a look at the movement of cold lows at the 500-millibar level and their influence on surface lows, displacement of surface cold fronts, and warm frontal analysis and movement. Topics include movement of warm fronts, identification and location of warm fronts, East Coast wedge type, and warm frontogenesis. The text then examines the movement of tropical cyclones, prediction of very low ceiling and fogs, and prediction of severe weather. The publication is a dependable reference for weather forecasters and pilots.
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Prognostics and Health Management of Electronics

Fundamentals, Machine Learning, and the Internet of Things

Author: Michael G. Pecht,Myeongsu Kang

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119515300

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 800

View: 9255

An indispensable guide for engineers and data scientists in design, testing, operation, manufacturing, and maintenance A road map to the current challenges and available opportunities for the research and development of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), this important work covers all areas of electronics and explains how to: assess methods for damage estimation of components and systems due to field loading conditions assess the cost and benefits of prognostic implementations develop novel methods for in situ monitoring of products and systems in actual life-cycle conditions enable condition-based (predictive) maintenance increase system availability through an extension of maintenance cycles and/or timely repair actions; obtain knowledge of load history for future design, qualification, and root cause analysis reduce the occurrence of no fault found (NFF) subtract life-cycle costs of equipment from reduction in inspection costs, downtime, and inventory Prognostics and Health Management of Electronics also explains how to understand statistical techniques and machine learning methods used for diagnostics and prognostics. Using this valuable resource, electrical engineers, data scientists, and design engineers will be able to fully grasp the synergy between IoT, machine learning, and risk assessment.
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Emerging Design Solutions in Structural Health Monitoring Systems

Author: Diego Alexander Tibaduiza Burgos,Luis Eduardo Mujica,José Rodellar

Publisher: IGI Global

ISBN: 1466684917

Category: Architecture

Page: 328

View: 1654

Structural health monitoring is an exciting new field on the frontier of applied engineering. With the purpose of examining the health of standing buildings, aircrafts, and other complex structures using pre-installed sensors that provide stress and pressure data in real-time, this field allows structural-health experts to act as engineering âeoedoctors.âe These specialists diagnose potential problems in advance using complex algorithms and statistical modeling so that steps may be taken to prevent structural damageâe"or worse, loss of life. Emerging Design Solutions in Structural Health Monitoring Systems seeks to advance cutting-edge research in the field, with a special focus on cross-disciplinary work involving recent advances in IT. This research has enabled structural-health experts to wield groundbreaking new models of artificial intelligence as a diagnostic tool capable of identifying future problems before they even appear. This publication serves as a broad overview of structural management science, as well as an on-ramp for a general engineering audience, including students, educators, and researchers.
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Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Author: Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner

Publisher: Crown

ISBN: 080413670X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 2216

A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.
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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author: Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 012812248X

Category: Science

Page: 362

View: 2280

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
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Death Foretold

Prophecy and Prognosis in Medical Care

Author: Nicholas A. Christakis

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226104713

Category: Medical

Page: 350

View: 4123

This groundbreaking book explains prognosis from the perspective of doctors, examining why physicians are reluctant to predict the future, how doctors use prognosis, the symbolism it contains, and the emotional difficulties it involves. Drawing on his experiences as a doctor and sociologist, Nicholas Christakis interviewed scores of physicians and searched dozens of medical textbooks and medical school curricula for discussions of prognosis in an attempt to get to the core of this nebulous medical issue that, despite its importance, is only partially understood and rarely discussed. "Highly recommended for everyone from patients wrestling with their personal prognosis to any medical practitioner touched by this bioethical dilemma."—Library Journal, starred review "[T]he first full general discussion of prognosis ever written. . . . [A] manifesto for a form of prognosis that's equal parts prediction-an assessment of likely outcomes based on statistical averages-and prophecy, an intuition of what lies ahead."—Jeff Sharlet, Chicago Reader "[S]ophisticated, extraordinarily well supported, and compelling. . . . [Christakis] argues forcefully that the profession must take responsibility for the current widespread avoidance of prognosis and change the present culture. This prophet is one whose advice we would do well to heed."—James Tulsky, M.D., New England Journal of Medicine
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Evidence Based Pathology and Laboratory Medicine

Author: Alberto M. Marchevsky,Mark Wick

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9781441910301

Category: Medical

Page: 361

View: 5115

Focusing on practical, patient related issues, this volume provides the basic concepts of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) as they relate to Pathology and Laboratory Medicine and presents various practical applications. It includes EBM concepts for use in the identification of cost-effective panels of immunostains and other laboratory tests and for improvement of diagnostic accuracy based on the identification of selected diagnostic features for particular differential diagnosis. EBM concepts are also put forth for use in Meta-analysis to integrate the results of conflicting literature reports and use of novel analytical tools such as Bayesian belief networks, neural networks, multivariate statistics and decision tree analysis for the development of new diagnostic and prognostic models for the evaluation of patients. This volume will be of great value to pathologists who will benefit from the concepts being promoted by EBM, such as levels of evidence, use of Bayesian statistics to develop diagnostic and other rules and stronger reliance on "hard data" to support therapeutic and diagnostic modalities.
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Breast Cancer Screening

Making Sense of Complex and Evolving Evidence

Author: Nehmat Houssami,Diana Miglioretti

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0128024941

Category: Medical

Page: 456

View: 1177

Breast Cancer Screening: Making Sense of Complex and Evolving Evidence covers broad aspects of breast cancer screening specifically focusing on current evidence, emerging evidence, and issues that will be critical for future breast screening practice such as tailored screening and shared decision-making in breast screening. The scope of the book is relevant to a global audience. This book provides balanced perspectives on this increasingly controversial topic, using scientific evidence to explain the evolution of knowledge relating to breast cancer screening. Breast Cancer Screening covers the key points related to this debate including the context of increasingly complex and conflicting evidence, divergent opinions on the benefits and harms of breast screening, and variability in screening practice and outcomes across settings around the world. Explains complex and evolving evidence on breast screening with a balanced approach Provides balanced information and up-to-date evidence in an increasingly complex area Addresses emerging topical issues such as screening trials of digital breast tomosynthesis, tailored breast screening, and shared decision-making in breast screening Assists academics and researchers in identifying areas needing further research
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Epigenetic Biomarkers and Diagnostics

Author: José Luis García-Giménez

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0128019212

Category: Science

Page: 696

View: 8956

Epigenetic Biomarkers and Diagnostics comprises 31 chapters contributed by leading active researchers in basic and clinical epigenetics. The book begins with the basis of epigenetic mechanisms and descriptions of epigenetic biomarkers that can be used in clinical diagnostics and prognostics. It goes on to discuss classical methods and next generation sequencing-based technologies to discover and analyze epigenetic biomarkers. The book concludes with an account of DNA methylation, post-translational modifications and noncoding RNAs as the most promising biomarkers for cancer (i.e. breast, lung, colon, etc.), metabolic disorders (i.e. diabetes and obesity), autoimmune diseases, infertility, allergy, infectious diseases, and neurological disorders. The book describes the challenging aspects of research in epigenetics, and current findings regarding new epigenetic elements and modifiers, providing guidance for researchers interested in the most advanced technologies and tested biomarkers to be used in the clinical diagnosis or prognosis of disease. Focuses on recent progress in several areas of epigenetics, general concepts regarding epigenetics, and the future prospects of this discipline in clinical diagnostics and prognostics Describes the importance of the quality of samples and clinical associated data, and also the ethical issues for epigenetic diagnostics Discusses the advances in epigenomics technologies, including next-generation sequencing based tools and applications Expounds on the utility of epigenetic biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of several diseases, highlighting the study of these biomarkers in cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, infertility, and infectious diseases Includes a special section that discusses the relevance of biobanks in the maintenance of high quality biosamples and clinical-associated data, and the relevance of the ethical aspects in epigenetic studies
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Machinery Prognostics and Prognosis Oriented Maintenance Management

Author: Jihong Yan

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118638727

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 375

View: 2519

This book gives a complete presentatin of the basic essentials of machinery prognostics and prognosis oriented maintenance management, and takes a look at the cutting-edge discipline of intelligent failure prognosis technologies for condition-based maintenance. Latest research results and application methods are introduced for signal processing, reliability moelling, deterioration evaluation, residual life prediction and maintenance-optimization as well as applications of these methods.
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6th International Conference on the Development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnam (BME6)

Author: Toi Vo Van,Thanh An Nguyen Le,Thang Nguyen Duc

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9811043612

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 945

View: 1982

Under the motto “Healthcare Technology for Developing Countries” this book publishes many topics which are crucial for the health care systems in upcoming countries. The topics include Cyber Medical Systems Medical Instrumentation Nanomedicine and Drug Delivery Systems Public Health Entrepreneurship This proceedings volume offers the scientific results of the 6th International Conference on the Development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnam, held in June 2016 at Ho Chi Minh City.
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Diagnosis and Prediction

Author: Seymour Geisser

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1461215404

Category: Mathematics

Page: 148

View: 5248

A collection of refereed papers from a six-week workshop on statistics in the health sciences, that brought together theoretical and applied statisticians from universities, medical and public health schools, government and private research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies involved in prediction problems in the life and social sciences and in diagnostic and screening tests. A number of papers with applications were presented and particularly lively discussions ensued involving the critical issues and difficulties in using and interpreting diagnostic tests and implementing mass screening programs. The prediction or controlling future events, such as survival, comparative survival and survival post intervention for a disease or even for certain biological or natural events was also represented by participants who presented work that devised predictive methodology for a variety of problems mainly from a Bayesian perspective.
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Biomarkers of Kidney Disease

Author: Charles L. Edelstein

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0128030356

Category: Medical

Page: 632

View: 4182

Biomarkers of Kidney Disease, Second Edition, focuses on the basic and clinical research of biomarkers in common kidney diseases, detailing the characteristics of an ideal biomarker. The latest techniques for biomarker detection, including metabolomics and proteomics are covered in the book. This comprehensive book details the latest advances made in the field of biomarker research and development in kidney diseases. The book is an ideal companion for those interested in biomarker research and development, proteomics and metabolomics, kidney diseases, statistical analysis, transplantation, and preeclampsia. New chapters include biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in patients with CKD, biomarkers of Polycystic Kidney Disease, and biomarkers and the role of nanomedicine. Explores both the practical and conceptual steps performed in the discovery of biomarkers in kidney disease Presents a comprehensive account of newer biomarker discover strategies, such as metabolomics and proteomics, all illustrated by clear examples Offers clear translational presentations by the top basic and clinical researchers in each specific renal disease, including AKI, transplantation, cancer, CKD, PKD, diabetic nephropathy, preeclampsia, and glomerular disease
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Dynamic Prediction in Clinical Survival Analysis

Author: Hans van Houwelingen,Hein Putter

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1439835438

Category: Mathematics

Page: 250

View: 6821

There is a huge amount of literature on statistical models for the prediction of survival after diagnosis of a wide range of diseases like cancer, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease. Current practice is to use prediction models based on the Cox proportional hazards model and to present those as static models for remaining lifetime after diagnosis or treatment. In contrast, Dynamic Prediction in Clinical Survival Analysis focuses on dynamic models for the remaining lifetime at later points in time, for instance using landmark models. Designed to be useful to applied statisticians and clinical epidemiologists, each chapter in the book has a practical focus on the issues of working with real life data. Chapters conclude with additional material either on the interpretation of the models, alternative models, or theoretical background. The book consists of four parts: Part I deals with prognostic models for survival data using (clinical) information available at baseline, based on the Cox model Part II is about prognostic models for survival data using (clinical) information available at baseline, when the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model is violated Part III is dedicated to the use of time-dependent information in dynamic prediction Part IV explores dynamic prediction models for survival data using genomic data Dynamic Prediction in Clinical Survival Analysis summarizes cutting-edge research on the dynamic use of predictive models with traditional and new approaches. Aimed at applied statisticians who actively analyze clinical data in collaboration with clinicians, the analyses of the different data sets throughout the book demonstrate how predictive models can be obtained from proper data sets.
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