Crude Volatility

The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices

Author: Robert McNally

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231543689

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 3300

As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
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Crude Volatility

The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices

Author: Robert McNally

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9780231178143

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 3275

Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization, ranking alongside food as one of our most critical commodities. It drives geopolitical, economic, and financial affairs, as well as environmental debates and policymaking. As the place of oil in our global economy has evolved, so too has the way we buy and sell it, with rudimentary transactions at the wellhead developing into a sophisticated and complex global market. Yet while today's oil market bears little resemblance to the one born in the valleys and creeks of western Pennsylvania more than 150 years ago, one core feature remains: a natural tendency toward boom and bust price cycles that can devastate economies, trigger or prolong recessions, and undermine growth and investment. Tracing a history marked with conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, Robert McNally shows how--even from the very first years of the market--wild volatility in oil prices led to intensive efforts to stabilize price fluctuations and manage supply. First Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then U.S. state regulators along with major international oil companies, and finally OPEC each enjoyed varying degrees of success in the pursuit of oil price stability. But the spectacular boom of 2008 and bust of 2015 have revealed a structural shift back to extreme oil price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for nearly a century. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields to the fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility provides a crucial perspective that discards distractions and tired myths, shows lessons learned from prior mistakes, and provides the historical foundation we need to face, understand, and surmount the challenges ahead.
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Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Spillover

Effects of Oil Prices on Exchange Rates and Stock Markets of Emerging Economies

Author: Bhaskar Bagchi,Dhrubaranjan Dandapat,Susmita Chatterjee

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

ISBN: 1786355531

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 224

View: 5686

This book examines the dynamic relationship and volatility spillovers between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of emerging economies. Unfortunately very little research has been conducted to analyze the volatility spillovers and dynamic relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of India.
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Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Author: Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319282018

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 626

View: 5744

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
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Trading VIX Derivatives

Trading and Hedging Strategies Using VIX Futures, Options, and Exchange Traded Notes

Author: Russell Rhoads

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470933089

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 6313

"Trading VIX Derivatives will be a comprehensive book covering all aspects of the Chicago Board Options Exchange stock market volatility index. The book will explain the mechanics and strategies associated with trading VIX options, futures, exchange trading notes and options on exchange traded notes. Known as the "fear index" the VIX provides a snapshot of expectations about future stock market volatility and generally moves inversely to the overall stock market. As such, many market participants look at the VIX to help understand market sentiment and predict turning points. With a slew of VIX index trading products now available, there are a variety of strategies traders use to speculate outright on the direction of market volatility or to use the products in conjunction with other instruments to create spread trades or hedge their overall risk. A top instructor at the CBOE's Options Institute, the author will reflect the wide range of uses associated with the VIX and will make the book useful to both new traders and seasoned professionals"--
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The Art of Sanctions

A View from the Field

Author: Richard Nephew

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231542550

Category: Political Science

Page: 233

View: 3706

Nations and international organizations are increasingly using sanctions as a means to achieve their foreign policy aims. However, sanctions are ineffective if they are executed without a clear strategy responsive to the nature and changing behavior of the target. In The Art of Sanctions, Richard Nephew offers a much-needed practical framework for planning and applying sanctions that focuses not just on the initial sanctions strategy but also, crucially, on how to calibrate along the way and how to decide when sanctions have achieved maximum effectiveness. Nephew—a leader in the design and implementation of sanctions on Iran—develops guidelines for interpreting targets’ responses to sanctions based on two critical factors: pain and resolve. The efficacy of sanctions lies in the application of pain against a target, but targets may have significant resolve to resist, tolerate, or overcome this pain. Understanding the interplay of pain and resolve is central to using sanctions both successfully and humanely. With attention to these two key variables, and to how they change over the course of a sanctions regime, policy makers can pinpoint when diplomatic intervention is likely to succeed or when escalation is necessary. Focusing on lessons learned from sanctions on both Iran and Iraq, Nephew provides policymakers with practical guidance on how to measure and respond to pain and resolve in the service of strong and successful sanctions regimes.
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Out of the Desert

My Journey From Nomadic Bedouin to the Heart of Global Oil

Author: Ali Al-Naimi

Publisher: Penguin UK

ISBN: 0241978394

Category: Biography & Autobiography

Page: 320

View: 9302

The extraordinary memoir of global oil's former central banker Ali Al-Naimi is the former Saudi oil minister - and OPEC kingpin - a position he held for the two decades between August 1995 and May 2016. In this time, Al-Naimi's briefest utterances moved markets. But it wasn't always that way. Al-Naimi was born into abject poverty as a nomadic Bedouin in the 1930s, just as US companies were discovering vast quantities of oil under the baking Arabian deserts. From his first job as a shepherd boy, aged four, to his appointment to one of the most powerful political and economic jobs in the world, Out of the Desert charts Al-Naimi's extraordinary rise to power. Described by Alan Greenspan as 'the most powerful man you've never heard of', Al-Naimi's incredible journey proves that anyone can make it - even a poor Bedouin shepherd boy. This is his exclusive inside story of power, politics and oil. His Excellency Ali Ibrahim Al-Naimi is the former Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of the most powerful economic and political jobs in the world, he held this post from August 1995 to May 2016. Prior to that he held a wide range of leadership positions in the Kingdom's national oil company, Saudi Aramco. He was the first Saudi national to be named President of the company in 1984 and became the first Saudi CEO in 1988. Al-Naimi joined the company, then called Aramco, as an office boy in 1947. A Bedouin, he was born in the deserts of eastern Arabia in 1935.
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The Vega Factor

Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis

Author: Kent Moors

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118077091

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 448

View: 7409

How oil volatility is affecting the global political scene, and where the oil market is heading The world is rapidly moving towards an oil environment defined by volatility. The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis takes an in-depth look at the most important topics in the industry, including strategic risk, why traditional pricing mechanisms will no longer govern the market, and how the current government approaches have only worsened an already bad situation. Details the industry's players, including companies, traders, and governments Describes the priorities that will need to be revised, and the policies needed to achieve stability Explains how today's oil market is fundamentally different from the pre-crisis market Oil prices affect everyone. The Vega Factor explains the new international oil environment of increasing consolidation and decreasing competition, and reveals how consumers and investors can navigate price volatility and new government policies.
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The Price of Oil

Author: Roberto F. Aguilera,Marian Radetzki

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1316432424

Category: Business & Economics

Page: N.A

View: 6523

Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate. This book will appeal to a wide readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy industry, as well as to general readers interested in the ongoing debate about oil prices.
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The Fracking Debate

The Risks, Benefits, and Uncertainties of the Shale Revolution

Author: Daniel Raimi

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231545711

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 262

View: 7861

Over roughly the past decade, oil and gas production in the United States has surged dramatically—thanks largely to technological advances such as high-volume hydraulic fracturing, more commonly known as “fracking.” This rapid increase has generated widespread debate, with proponents touting economic and energy-security benefits and opponents highlighting the environmental and social risks of increased oil and gas production. Despite the heated debate, neither side has a monopoly on the facts. In this book, Daniel Raimi gives a balanced and accessible view of oil and gas development, clearly and thoroughly explaining the key issues surrounding the shale revolution. The Fracking Debate directly addresses the most common questions and concerns associated with fracking: What is fracking? Does fracking pollute the water supply? Will fracking make the United States energy independent? Does fracking cause earthquakes? How is fracking regulated? Is fracking good for the economy? Coupling a deep understanding of the scholarly research with lessons from his travels to every major U.S. oil- and gas-producing region, Raimi highlights stories of the people and communities affected by the shale revolution, for better and for worse. The Fracking Debate provides the evidence and context that have so frequently been missing from the national discussion of the future of oil and gas production, offering readers the tools to make sense of this critical issue.
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How to Trade Black Gold

Crude Oil Investing and Trading for Beginners

Author: Christo Ricardo

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: N.A

Category:

Page: 150

View: 4988

Crude oil investing and trading is not for the faint of heart or weak minded. Your trading capital can vanish right before your very eyes should you not be prepared or not have a plan to deal with the brutality and volatility of the crude oil market. How to Trade Black Gold is important for self-directed beginners because it helps them develop the tools and confidence to become successful trading in this volatile market. How to Trade Black Gold details a few easy and fast ways in which a brand new self-directed beginner can get into the crude oil sector in their portfolio by buying low and selling high. Trading and investing in crude oil presents challenges that are not normal in other instruments due to the many variables that are involved with its price movement. The markets, especially crude oil only work on supply and demand and that’s it, and you don’t need any fancy indicators to tell you that price is up or down because you can see it right on the price chart. How to Trade Black Gold can get any brand new self-directed crude oil trading beginner on the fast track to high profits as long as they are well capitalized and have their rule based core strategy for trading and investing in crude oil mastered! How to Trade Black Gold is going to tell the brand new self-directed beginner crude oil trader only the most important information they need to know right away which will empower them to make money trading crude oil. How to Trade Black Gold tells you how to learn it the right way the first time and greatly reduce that long learning curve by showing you what the crude oil market is really made of and what you need to know to begin making money trading in the harsh and volatile market of crude oil.
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The Volatility Smile

Author: Emanuel Derman,Michael B. Miller

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118959175

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 528

View: 1387

The Volatility Smile The Black-Scholes-Merton option model was the greatest innovation of 20th century finance, and remains the most widely applied theory in all of finance. Despite this success, the model is fundamentally at odds with the observed behavior of option markets: a graph of implied volatilities against strike will typically display a curve or skew, which practitioners refer to as the smile, and which the model cannot explain. Option valuation is not a solved problem, and the past forty years have witnessed an abundance of new models that try to reconcile theory with markets. The Volatility Smile presents a unified treatment of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the more advanced models that have replaced it. It is also a book about the principles of financial valuation and how to apply them. Celebrated author and quant Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller explain not just the mathematics but the ideas behind the models. By examining the foundations, the implementation, and the pros and cons of various models, and by carefully exploring their derivations and their assumptions, readers will learn not only how to handle the volatility smile but how to evaluate and build their own financial models. Topics covered include: The principles of valuation Static and dynamic replication The Black-Scholes-Merton model Hedging strategies Transaction costs The behavior of the volatility smile Implied distributions Local volatility models Stochastic volatility models Jump-diffusion models The first half of the book, Chapters 1 through 13, can serve as a standalone textbook for a course on option valuation and the Black-Scholes-Merton model, presenting the principles of financial modeling, several derivations of the model, and a detailed discussion of how it is used in practice. The second half focuses on the behavior of the volatility smile, and, in conjunction with the first half, can be used for as the basis for a more advanced course.
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Market Madness

A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes

Author: Blake C. Clayton

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199990077

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 7941

Stock market booms are cause for celebration. But when oil prices soar because supplies are failing to keep up with demand, the response is nearly always apocalyptic. Predictions of the end of oil can create anxiety on Wall Street and in Washington, stoking fears that production has hit a ceiling and prices will rise in perpetuity. Yet these dire visions have always proven wrong. Market Madness is the story of four waves of American anxiety over the last 100 years about a looming end to oil reserves. Their sweeping pattern-as large price increases lead to widespread shortage fears that eventually dissipate when oil production rises again and prices moderate-has defined the wild price swings in the oil market down to the present day. Blake Clayton, a Wall Street stock analyst and adjunct fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, makes the case for the need for better information, communication and transparency. While these measures will not eliminate volatility and unpredictability completely, they would mitigate unnecessary price spikes and improve both investor and government decision-making. Market Madness is the first study to employ Nobel Laureate economist Robert Shiller's "new era economics" beyond the markets to which he famously applied it-the 1990s dot-com equity market and the mid-2000s housing market-in order to better understand the dynamics of speculative bubbles and irrationality in the commodities markets. In so doing, it breaks new ground in illuminating how mass beliefs about the future of a vital asset like oil take shape and what the future of energy may hold.
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The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas

Author: Agnia Grigas

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674978102

Category: Political Science

Page: 416

View: 4502

As the United States aggressively expands its exports of liquefied natural gas, it stands poised to become an energy superpower. This unanticipated reality is rewriting the conventional rules of intercontinental gas trade and realigning strategic relations among the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and beyond, as Agnia Grigas shows.
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A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World

Author: Peter Tertzakian

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

ISBN: 0071502254

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 1734

In 2006, world oil consumption will exceed one thousand barrels per second. The news marks an important change that will have a far-reaching impact on world economies, investments, and business profitability. In A Thousand Barrels a Second, Chief Energy Economist of ARC Financial Peter Tertzakian examines the future of oil and offers insights into what it will take to rebalance our energy needs and seize new opportunities. He answers the top questions asked by business leaders, policy makers, investors, and concerned citizens as we approach the coming break point: Are today's high oil and gas prices part of a routine business cycle, or are there more profound forces at play? Are hybrid vehicles our only solution against high gasoline prices? Is China's growing thirst for energy sustainable? Which government policies work and which do not? Will nuclear power and coal save the day-again? Tertzakian also offers a realistic, informed look into the future of our energy supply chains and how our consumption patterns may evolve, revealing how governments, businesses, and even individuals can meet the coming challenges with better solutions and innovations.
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Deep Shale Oil and Gas

Author: James G. Speight

Publisher: Gulf Professional Publishing

ISBN: 0128030984

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 492

View: 9108

Natural gas and crude oil production from hydrocarbon rich deep shale formations is one of the most quickly expanding trends in domestic oil and gas exploration. Vast new natural gas and oil resources are being discovered every year across North America and one of those new resources comes from the development of deep shale formations, typically located many thousands of feet below the surface of the Earth in tight, low permeability formations. Deep Shale Oil and Gas provides an introduction to shale gas resources as well as offer a basic understanding of the geomechanical properties of shale, the need for hydraulic fracturing, and an indication of shale gas processing. The book also examines the issues regarding the nature of shale gas development, the potential environmental impacts, and the ability of the current regulatory structure to deal with these issues. Deep Shale Oil and Gas delivers a useful reference that today’s petroleum and natural gas engineer can use to make informed decisions about meeting and managing the challenges they may face in the development of these resources. Clarifies all the basic information needed to quickly understand today’s deeper shale oil and gas industry, horizontal drilling, fracture fluids chemicals needed, and completions Addresses critical coverage on water treatment in shale, and important and evolving technology Practical handbook with real-world case shale plays discussed, especially the up-and-coming deeper areas of shale development
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How I Saw It

Analysis and Commentary on Environmental Finance (1999-2005)

Author: Richard L. Sandor

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company

ISBN: 9789813202641

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 269

View: 4043

From 1999 to 2005, Richard L Sandor wrote a monthly column for Environmental Finance magazine. The column was called "How I See It," and with this latest publication, Sandor has compiled all of his articles into one comprehensive historical analysis and commentary on the field of Environmental Finance. How I Saw It offers a historical account of the development of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) from the "father of carbon trading" himself, and also the developments in environmental markets over the years since the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. In his monthly contribution, Sandor makes predictions in his articles, and read for yourself to see if he has been on the right path (or not) all along.
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Following Oil

Four Decades of Cycle-Testing Experiences and What They Foretell about U.S. Energy Independence

Author: Thomas A. Petrie

Publisher: University of Oklahoma Press

ISBN: 0806146117

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 7419

In a forty-year career as an oil and gas investment analyst and as an investment banker and strategic adviser on petroleum-sector mergers, acquisitions, and financings, Thomas A. Petrie has witnessed dramatic changes in the business. In Following Oil, he shares useful lessons he has learned about domestic and global trends in population and economic growth, a maturing resource base, variable national energy policies, and dynamic changes in geopolitical forces—and how these variables affect energy markets. More important, he applies those lessons to charting a course of energy development for the nation as the twenty-first century unfolds. By the 1970s, when Petrie began analyzing publicly traded securities in the energy sector, the petroleum investment market was depressed. The rise of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pushed energy to the center of the national security calculus of the United States and its allies. Price volatility would continue to whipsaw global markets for decades, while for consumers, cheap gasoline prices soon became a fond memory. Eventually, as Petrie puts it, finding oil on Wall Street became cheaper than drilling for it. Petrie uses this dramatic period in oil business history to relate what he has learned from “following oil” as a securities analyst and investment banker. But the title also refers to energy sources that could become available following eventual shrinkage of conventional-oil supplies. Addressing the current need for greener, more sustainable energy sources, Petrie points to recent large domestic gas discoveries and the use of new technologies such as horizontal drilling to unlock unconventional hydrocarbons. With these new sources, the United States can increase production and ensure itself enough oil and gas to sustain economic growth during the next several decades. Petrie urges the pursuit of cleaner fossil fuel development in order to buy the time to develop the technical advances needed to bridge the nation to a greener energy future, when wind, solar, and other technologies advance sufficiently to play a larger role.
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Enterprise Risk Management in Finance

Author: Desheng Dash Wu,David L. Olson

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

ISBN: 9781137466280

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 280

View: 710

Enterprise Risk Management in Finance is a guide to measuring and managing Enterprise-wide risks in financial institutions. Financial institutions operate in a unique manner when compared to other businesses. They are, by the nature of their business, highly exposed to risk at every level, and indeed employ their own risk management functions to manage many of these risks. However, financial firms are also highly exposed at enterprise level. Traditional approaches and frameworks for ERM are flawed when applied to banks, asset managers or insurance houses, and a different approach is needed. This new book provides a comprehensive, technical guide to ERM for financial institutions. Split into three parts, it first sets the scene, putting ERM in the context of finance houses. It will examine the financial risks already inherent in banking, and then insurance operations, and how these need to be accounted for at a floor and enterprise level. The book then provides the necessary tools to implement ERM in these environments, including performance analysis, credit analysis and forecasting applications. Finally, the book provides real life cases of successful and not so successful ERM in financial institutions. Technical and rigorous, this book will be a welcome addition to the literature in this area, and will appeal to risk managers, actuaries, regulators and senior managers in banks and financial institutions.
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