Business Cycles

Author: Lars Tvede

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 113469797X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 360

View: 1874

Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.
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Beating the Business Cycle

How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy

Author: Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji

Publisher: Crown Business

ISBN: 9780385512589

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 208

View: 5692

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
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Business Cycles

Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: Victor Zarnowitz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226978901

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 593

View: 6803

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
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Business Cycles and Depressions

An Encyclopedia

Author: David Glasner

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136545204

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 800

View: 7948

First published in 1997. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
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Business Cycles

Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting

Author: Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691012186

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 420

View: 1300

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch here present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, business executives, and others who need to understand the fluctuations in today's economy.
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Frontiers of Business Cycle Research

Author: Thomas F. Cooley

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691043234

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 419

View: 2917

This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
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Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles, 2nd Edition

Understanding Business Cycles

Author: Todd A. Knoop

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 031338164X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 280

View: 953

This book offers an examination of the empirical data of business cycles, the theories that economists have developed to explain them, and major case studies of recessions and depressions both in the United States and internationally. • Includes case studies on major economic downturns in the 20th century, from the Great Depression to the 2008 financial crisis • Presents 40 tables and 20 graphs of business cycle data • Offers a bibliography of current and historical business cycle research
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Business Cycles

Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy

Author: Sumru Altug

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9812832769

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 152

View: 8267

Provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. This book examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modeling. It also discusses what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.
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Real Business Cycles

A Reader

Author: James Hartley,Kevin Hoover,Kevin D. Salyer

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134694784

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 684

View: 5292

Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.
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Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles

Author: Alex Cukierman,Zvi Hercowitz,Leonardo Leiderman

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 9780262031943

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 405

View: 319

These original contributions by some of today's leading macroeconomists and politicaleconomists explore a broad spectrum of social, political, and technological variables that encourageor impede economic growth.
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Investment Timing and the Business Cycle

Author: Jon Gregory Taylor

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471188797

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 206

View: 2927

Investment professionals know that successful investment decision-making is tied to business cycles. Investment timing expert Jon Taylor offers professionals a solid framework for assessing returns at different stages of a business cycle. Here is a hands-on guide to a valued analytical technique that covers all investment vehicles, including stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.
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The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence

Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Author: M.T. Belongia,Michelle R. Garfinkel

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792392392

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 209

View: 9267

These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.
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Business Cycles

From John Law to the Internet Crash

Author: Lars Tvede

Publisher: Psychology Press

ISBN: 9780415270502

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 350

View: 940

Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.
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Business Cycles

Author: F.A. Hayek

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135744998

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 304

View: 6213

The latest editions in Routledge's ongoing series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek's work on what causes periods of boom and bust in the economy. Business Cycles: Part I contains Hayek's two major monographs on the topic: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle and Prices and Production. Reproducing the text of the original 1933 translation of the former, this edition also draws on the original German, as well as more recent translations.
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Economic Cycles

Long Cycles and Business Cycles Since 1870

Author: Solomos Solomou

Publisher: Manchester University Press

ISBN: 9780719041518

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 132

View: 563

The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are a feature of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over the three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. The book provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and downs more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU, have on future fluctuations? A long-run historical perspective is particularity helpful for understanding long economic cycles.
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Political Business Cycles

The Political Economy of Money, Inflation, and Unemployment

Author: Thomas D. Willett

Publisher: Duke University Press

ISBN: 9780822308423

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 521

View: 9702

The "political business cycle", according to economist William Nordhaus, creates a situation in which political and bureaucratic incentives create artificial economic booms just before elections, with consequent and deleterious side effects after the ballots are counted. This work examines the issue of whether federal governmental structure inevitably leaves the U.S. economy exposed to unhealthy political influences.
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American Business Cycles 1945-50

Author: Conrad Blyth

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136598197

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 312

View: 947

After the end of the Second World War businessmen and economists throughout the world feared that the American postwar inflationary boom would end in a serious slump. The slump took a long time to come, and when it did appear in 1949 it was both mild and short lived. In its mildness and brevity it foreshadowed the American business recessions since that time and, indeed, may foreshadow the end of the business cycle as it has been known in the past. This book presents the first full-scale study of the 1948–49 recession in the United States, making it the focal point of a detailed, analytical account of American business fluctuations from the end of the Second World War until the beginning of the Korean War. The main part of the book is prefaced by a review of fluctuations from 1945 to 1967 and of the business cycle theory, which places the postwar events in perspective. Of special importance are the studies of the ending, in early 1948, of the period of re-stocking and re-equipment; of the impact of the changed farm situation in this deflationary atmosphere, and use of modern consumption theory to explain the changes in household spending after the war and during the recession. Dr. Blyth has drawn extensively upon the results of modern economic research, and has woven the econometric findings and the historical narrative together with a theoretical analysis. He conclusively rejects the theory that recent U.S. business cycles are the result of any largely self-perpetuating fluctuation in investment in stocks. Instead he draws attention to the persistent destabilizing roles of changes in defense expenditure and of changes in monetary policy-inventory investment performs the largely passive role of aggravating these changes. The book, first published in 1969, will be of value not only to specialists in business cycle studies, but to economists and others concerned with the problems of stability and growth in the international economy, as well as to economic historians.
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Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles

Author: Kajal Lahiri,Badi H. Baltagi,Efraim Sadka

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

ISBN: 0857241478

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 210

View: 7279

Addressing the role that the transportation sector plays in business cycle propagation, this title presents an index of the different indicators for this sector to identify its state, and predict its future, using various statistical procedures.
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Studies in the Theory of Business Cycles

1933-1939

Author: Michal Kalecki

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1315415070

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 85

View: 1739

This volume, originally published in 1966, contains essays from the 1930s and is valuable not only in the context of the history of thought. It provides an excellent introduction to the general theory of employment, interest and money and reflect the most essential features of Kalecki’s theory of the business cycle.
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Business Cycles

Author: Wesley Clair Mitchell

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Economic conditions

Page: 610

View: 8744

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