Business Cycles and Depressions

An Encyclopedia

Author: David Glasner

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136545271

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 800

View: 2482

First published in 1997. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226774749

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 348

View: 5213

The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Business Cycles

Author: F.A. Hayek

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135745277

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 360

View: 1549

The latest editions in Routledge's ongoing series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek's work on what causes periods of boom and bust in the economy. Business Cycles: Part II assembles a series of Hayek's shorter papers on the topic, ranging from the 1920s to 1981.

Business Cycles

Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting

Author: Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691012186

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 420

View: 3303

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch here present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, business executives, and others who need to understand the fluctuations in today's economy.

International Real Business Cycles

Author: Elmar Hüskes

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

ISBN: 3640165357


Page: 52

View: 6969

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2004 im Fachbereich VWL - Konjunktur und Wachstum, Note: 2,3, Universitat zu Koln, Veranstaltung: Hauptseminar SS04 Prof. Axel Weber(Bundesbankprasident), 8 Quellen im Literaturverzeichnis, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Dieser Aufsatz befasst sich mit der Theorie der "International Real Business Cycles," welche ihren Ursprung haben in Artikeln von Kydland und Plosser (1982) und Long und Plosser (1983). Diese Artikel wirkten zur Zeit ihres Erscheinens revolutionar, denn sowohl inhaltlich als auch methodisch lagen sie weit abseits des Spektrums traditioneller Konjunkturtheorie. ...]

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles

Author: Costas Milas,Philip Rothman,Dick van Dijk

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

ISBN: 044451838X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 435

View: 9018

The business cycle has long been the focus of empirical economic research. Until recently statistical analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations was dominated by linear time series methods. Over the past 15 years, however, economists have increasingly applied tractable parametric nonlinear time series models to business cycle data; most prominent in this set of models are the classes of Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) models, Markov-Switching AutoRegressive (MSAR) models, and Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) models. In doing so, several important questions have been addressed in the literature, including: 1. Do out-of-sample (point, interval, density, and turning point) forecasts obtained with nonlinear time series models dominate those generated with linear models? 2. How should business cycles be dated and measured? 3. What is the response of output and employment to oil-price and monetary shocks? 4. How does monetary policy respond to asymmetries over the business cycle? 5. Are business cycles due more to permanent or to transitory negative shocks? 6. Is the business cycle asymmetric, and does it matter? Accordingly, we have compiled and edited a book for the Elsevier economics program comprising 15 original papers on these and related themes. *Contributions to Economic Analysis was established in 1952 *The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information *The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics

Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles, 2nd Edition

Understanding Business Cycles

Author: Todd A. Knoop

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 031338164X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 280

View: 2871

This book offers an examination of the empirical data of business cycles, the theories that economists have developed to explain them, and major case studies of recessions and depressions both in the United States and internationally. • Includes case studies on major economic downturns in the 20th century, from the Great Depression to the 2008 financial crisis • Presents 40 tables and 20 graphs of business cycle data • Offers a bibliography of current and historical business cycle research

Business Cycles

Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: Victor Zarnowitz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226978901

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 593

View: 6806

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Business Cycles

Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy

Author: Sumru Altug

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9812832769

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 152

View: 1094

Provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. This book examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modeling. It also discusses what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.

Political Business Cycles

The Political Economy of Money, Inflation, and Unemployment

Author: Thomas D. Willett

Publisher: Duke University Press

ISBN: 9780822308423

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 521

View: 4855

The "political business cycle", according to economist William Nordhaus, creates a situation in which political and bureaucratic incentives create artificial economic booms just before elections, with consequent and deleterious side effects after the ballots are counted. This work examines the issue of whether federal governmental structure inevitably leaves the U.S. economy exposed to unhealthy political influences.

Business Cycles

Author: Lars Tvede

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 113469797X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 360

View: 2894

Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.

Business cycles

Author: Earl C. Hald

Publisher: N.A


Category: Business & Economics

Page: 518

View: 4428


Value Theory and Business Cycles

Author: Harlan Linneus McCracken

Publisher: The Minerva Group, Inc.

ISBN: 0894990675

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 300

View: 1144

Value Theory and Business Cycles was originally published in 1933 during the great depression. It is the purpose of the present study to show the vital relation between business cycle theory and value theory. In fact, the study is intended to contribute quite as definitely to the economics of value as of business cycles. Section I deals with embodied value theory and price movements. Section II deals with business cycles in relation to the marginal utility theory of value, as developed by the Austrian School. Section III deals directly with the problem of business equilibration, showing how certain forces contribute to instability, and suggesting ways and means of the achievement of greater business stability. The positive argument in this work may follow quite successfully by reading the first chapter in Section I and then proceeding directly to Sections II and III. -This book covers such topics as: -Why production does not finance consumption -Why supply does not beget demand -Why prices do not gravitate to the equilibrium point that clears the market -How a partial depression generates a general depression -Why the repeal of the antitrust laws and the promotion of unrestricted monopoly will not necessarily make business more stable-What the dangers of "greenbackism" really are-How the gold standard is unstable -Why liquidation fails to liquidate in time of depression.


On Entrepreneurs, Innovations, Business Cycles, and the Evolution of Capitalism

Author: Joseph Alois Schumpeter

Publisher: Transaction Publishers

ISBN: 9780887387647

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 341

View: 8894

In addition to the major themes of his life--the place of the entrepreneur in economic development, the risks and rewards of innovation, business cycles and why they occur, and the evolution of capitalism in Europe and America--the essays contain statements on how Schumpeter viewed his own development. They discuss how he looked at Marxism, and how he feared that economics was in danger of becoming too ideological. Several of the essays are classics. In this new edition, Schumpeter's Essays can finally be read with the enjoyment and enlightenment they deserve. The volume is alive to the basic issues of our time.

Collected Works of Michal Kalecki: Volume I. Capitalism: Business Cycles and Full Employment

Author: Michal Kalecki

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 9780198285380

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 614

View: 3994

This is the first of seven volumes in a definitive edition of the works of Michal Kalecki, who is one of the most distinguished economists of this century. The works will be of interest for the controversial light which they shed on the ideas expounded by John Maynard Keynes, since Kalecki arguably arrived at these conclusions even earlier than Keynes. This volume documents the confrontation between the two economists. It also charts Kalecki's development of a theory of full employment, including his early theoretical writings, and some of his less famous works.

Beating the Business Cycle

How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy

Author: Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji

Publisher: Crown Business

ISBN: 9780385512589

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 208

View: 5260

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence

Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Author: M.T. Belongia,Michelle R. Garfinkel

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792392392

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 209

View: 2465

These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.