International Real Business Cycles

Author: Elmar Hüskes

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

ISBN: 3640165357

Category:

Page: 52

View: 1381

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2004 im Fachbereich VWL - Konjunktur und Wachstum, Note: 2,3, Universitat zu Koln, Veranstaltung: Hauptseminar SS04 Prof. Axel Weber(Bundesbankprasident), 8 Quellen im Literaturverzeichnis, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Dieser Aufsatz befasst sich mit der Theorie der "International Real Business Cycles," welche ihren Ursprung haben in Artikeln von Kydland und Plosser (1982) und Long und Plosser (1983). Diese Artikel wirkten zur Zeit ihres Erscheinens revolutionar, denn sowohl inhaltlich als auch methodisch lagen sie weit abseits des Spektrums traditioneller Konjunkturtheorie. ...]
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Business Cycles and Depressions

An Encyclopedia

Author: David Glasner

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136545271

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 800

View: 9359

First published in 1997. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
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Business Cycles

Author: F.A. Hayek

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135744998

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 304

View: 9449

The latest editions in Routledge's ongoing series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek's work on what causes periods of boom and bust in the economy. Business Cycles: Part I contains Hayek's two major monographs on the topic: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle and Prices and Production. Reproducing the text of the original 1933 translation of the former, this edition also draws on the original German, as well as more recent translations.
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Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226774749

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 348

View: 7812

The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
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Business Cycles

Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: Victor Zarnowitz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226978901

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 593

View: 540

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
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Business Cycles

Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting

Author: Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691012186

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 420

View: 4299

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch here present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, business executives, and others who need to understand the fluctuations in today's economy.
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Concordance in Business Cycles

Author: C. John McDermott,Alasdair Scott

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business cycles

Page: 31

View: 2417

We study the properties of a test that determines whether two time series comove. The test computes a simple nonparametric statistic for “concordance,” which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of this test. As an illustration, the procedures are applied to output series from selected major industrial countries. We find limited evidence of widespread concordance for these countries.
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Political Business Cycles

The Political Economy of Money, Inflation, and Unemployment

Author: Thomas D. Willett

Publisher: Duke University Press

ISBN: 9780822308423

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 521

View: 2422

The "political business cycle", according to economist William Nordhaus, creates a situation in which political and bureaucratic incentives create artificial economic booms just before elections, with consequent and deleterious side effects after the ballots are counted. This work examines the issue of whether federal governmental structure inevitably leaves the U.S. economy exposed to unhealthy political influences.
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Business Cycles

Author: Lars Tvede

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 113469797X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 360

View: 8798

Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.
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Business Cycles

Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy

Author: Sumru Altug

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9812832785

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 160

View: 1761

This book provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. Written by one of the pioneering authors in this field, it examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modeling. Arguably, one of the most important debates in this literature has been the issue of OC matchingOCO a business cycle to the data. In their original contribution, Kydland and Prescott (1982) proposed the method of calibration as a way of examining the implications of a business cycle model; yet, even at its inception, this approach came under criticism from a variety of sources. This monograph will examine some of these criticisms and discuss alternative approaches that have been put forward. More generally, it will discuss what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (46 KB). Contents: Facts; Models of Business Cycles; International Business Cycles; New Keynesian Models; Business Cycles in Emerging Market Economies; Matching the Model to the Data; Future Areas for Research. Readership: Academic economists; graduate students interested in business cycle theory; policymakers.
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Caribbean Business Cycles

Author: Paul Cashin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business cycles

Page: 41

View: 4825

This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth) are identified. It is found that Caribbean classical cycles are longer-lived than those of developed countries and non-Caribbean developing countries. While there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in the Caribbean classical cycle, on both measures the Caribbean growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, there is some evidence of synchronization among the classical cycles of Caribbean countries, and stronger evidence of synchronization of Caribbean growth cycles.
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Collected Works of Michal Kalecki: Volume I. Capitalism: Business Cycles and Full Employment

Author: Michal Kalecki

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 9780198285380

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 614

View: 3762

This is the first of seven volumes in a definitive edition of the works of Michal Kalecki, who is one of the most distinguished economists of this century. The works will be of interest for the controversial light which they shed on the ideas expounded by John Maynard Keynes, since Kalecki arguably arrived at these conclusions even earlier than Keynes. This volume documents the confrontation between the two economists. It also charts Kalecki's development of a theory of full employment, including his early theoretical writings, and some of his less famous works.
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Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles, 2nd Edition

Understanding Business Cycles

Author: Todd A. Knoop

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 031338164X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 280

View: 1727

This book offers an examination of the empirical data of business cycles, the theories that economists have developed to explain them, and major case studies of recessions and depressions both in the United States and internationally. • Includes case studies on major economic downturns in the 20th century, from the Great Depression to the 2008 financial crisis • Presents 40 tables and 20 graphs of business cycle data • Offers a bibliography of current and historical business cycle research
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Global Business Cycles

Convergence Or Decoupling?

Author: M. Ayhan Kose,Christopher Otrok,Eswar S. Prasad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business cycles

Page: 49

View: 9748

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
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Investment Timing and the Business Cycle

Author: Jon Gregory Taylor

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471188797

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 206

View: 4268

Investment professionals know that successful investment decision-making is tied to business cycles. Investment timing expert Jon Taylor offers professionals a solid framework for assessing returns at different stages of a business cycle. Here is a hands-on guide to a valued analytical technique that covers all investment vehicles, including stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.
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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles

Author: Costas Milas,Philip Rothman,Dick van Dijk

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

ISBN: 044451838X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 435

View: 966

The business cycle has long been the focus of empirical economic research. Until recently statistical analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations was dominated by linear time series methods. Over the past 15 years, however, economists have increasingly applied tractable parametric nonlinear time series models to business cycle data; most prominent in this set of models are the classes of Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) models, Markov-Switching AutoRegressive (MSAR) models, and Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) models. In doing so, several important questions have been addressed in the literature, including: 1. Do out-of-sample (point, interval, density, and turning point) forecasts obtained with nonlinear time series models dominate those generated with linear models? 2. How should business cycles be dated and measured? 3. What is the response of output and employment to oil-price and monetary shocks? 4. How does monetary policy respond to asymmetries over the business cycle? 5. Are business cycles due more to permanent or to transitory negative shocks? 6. Is the business cycle asymmetric, and does it matter? Accordingly, we have compiled and edited a book for the Elsevier economics program comprising 15 original papers on these and related themes. *Contributions to Economic Analysis was established in 1952 *The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information *The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics
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Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stability

Should We Rebuild Built-in Stabilizers?

Author: Jean-olivier Hairault,Pierre-Yves Hénin,Franck Portier

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792399070

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 341

View: 4908

Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).
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The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence

Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Author: M.T. Belongia,Michelle R. Garfinkel

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780792392392

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 209

View: 8962

These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.
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Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy

The Case of Venezuela

Author: Alfredo Baldini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 44

View: 952

This paper analyzes the fiscal policy in Venezuela during 1991-2003, by using a number of statistical approaches to analyze trends and cycles of economic output and fiscal outcomes. The business cycle features a strong dominance of short-term cyclical components-each cycle having an average duration of about two to three years. However, the cyclical volatility of non-oil sector GDP is more than two times as large as the volatility of oil sector GDP. On the fiscal side, while oil revenues are independent of the business cycle, all the other main fiscal variables exhibit strong procyclicality. In particular, fiscal procyclicality is higher during good times than bad times, which could be related to the existence of "voracity effects." The discretionary component of fiscal policy is as volatile as the component induced by the business cycle.
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